ArticleInjury epidemiology2024
Single-year change in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey.
Article in Injury epidemiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Politically Salient Events May Modulate Effects of Naturalistic Psychedelic Use on Support for Partisan Violence.Psychedelic medicine (New Rochelle, N.Y.) · 2026Article
- Views on democracy and political violence in the United States in 2025: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2026Article
- Support for authoritarianism and use of force by and against the federal government in the United States in mid-2025: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2026Article
- Mind the Gap: Partisan Bias in Justifying Political Violence in the United States.Public opinion quarterly · 2026Article
- Life events and change in support for political violence in the United States: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Approval of extreme right-wing organizations and social movements and support for political violence in the United States: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- The MAGA movement and political violence in 2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Public opinion on civil war in the USA as of mid-2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Understanding knowledge and approval for sociopolitical groups: results from the 2023 National Survey of Gun Policy.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Trends in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA, 2022-2024: findings from a nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2025Article
- Expectations of and perceived need for civil war in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey.Injury epidemiology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundA 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings.
methodsWave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022's Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores.
resultsThe completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. About 1 in 20 respondents (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States," a 7.7% decrease. In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, "I will be armed with a gun" [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and "I will shoot someone with a gun" [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective.
conclusionsIn this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.