Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38773455›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024

Modelling respiratory syncytial virus age-specific risk of hospitalisation in term and preterm infants.

Fiona Giannini, Alexandra B Hogan, Mohinder Sarna, Kathryn Glass, Hannah C Moore

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Maternal Influenza Vaccine Reduces the Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Related Respiratory Hospitalizations in Early Infancy: An Epidemiological Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Fiona GianniniWesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, 15 Hospital Ave, Nedlands, WA, 6009, Australia. fiona.giannini@telethonkids.org.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6302-506X
Alexandra B HoganSchool of Population Health, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6271-9921
Mohinder SarnaWesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, 15 Hospital Ave, Nedlands, WA, 6009, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2448-1588
Kathryn Glass *Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, 15 Hospital Ave, Nedlands, WA, 6009, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5905-1310
Hannah C Moore *Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, 15 Hospital Ave, Nedlands, WA, 6009, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6434-8290

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infections in children worldwide. The highest incidence of severe disease is in the first 6 months of life, with infants born preterm at greatest risk for severe RSV infections. The licensure of new RSV therapeutics (a long-acting monoclonal antibody and a maternal vaccine) in Europe, USA, UK and most recently in Australia, has driven the need for strategic decision making on the implementation of RSV immunisation programs. Data driven approaches, considering the local RSV epidemiology, are critical to advise on the optimal use of these therapeutics for effective RSV control.

methodsWe developed a dynamic compartmental model of RSV transmission fitted to individually-linked population-based laboratory, perinatal and hospitalisation data for 2000-2012 from metropolitan Western Australia (WA), stratified by age and prior exposure. We account for the differential risk of RSV-hospitalisation in full-term and preterm infants (defined as < 37 weeks gestation). We formulated a function relating age, RSV exposure history, and preterm status to the risk of RSV-hospitalisation given infection.

resultsThe age-to-risk function shows that risk of hospitalisation, given RSV infection, declines quickly in the first 12 months of life for all infants and is 2.6 times higher in preterm compared with term infants. The hospitalisation risk, given infection, declines to < 10% of the risk at birth by age 7 months for term infants and by 9 months for preterm infants.

conclusionsThe dynamic model, using the age-to-risk function, characterises RSV epidemiology for metropolitan WA and can now be extended to predict the impact of prevention measures. The stratification of the model by preterm status will enable the comparative assessment of potential strategies in the extended model that target this RSV risk group relative to all-population approaches. Furthermore, the age-to-risk function developed in this work has wider relevance to the epidemiological characterisation of RSV.

Indexed as

HospitalizationInfant, PrematureRespiratory Syncytial Virus InfectionsAge FactorsFemaleHumansInfantInfant, NewbornMaleRespiratory Syncytial Virus, HumanRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsWestern AustraliaCompartmental modelInfectious disease modellingMathematical modelRespiratory Syncytial VirusRSVTransmission model

Identifiers

PMID38773455
PMCPMC11110433

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.