ArticleThe oncologist2024
Estimating scenarios for survival time in patients with advanced melanoma receiving immunotherapy and targeted therapy.
Article in The oncologist, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Circulating EV-microRNAs are dynamic biomarkers of resistance to therapeutic immunomodulation in metastatic melanoma.Communications medicine · 2026Article
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PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWe aim to provide survival scenario estimates for patients with advanced melanoma starting targeted therapies and immunotherapies. MATERIALS AND
methodsWe sought randomized trials of targeted therapies and immunotherapies for advanced melanoma and recorded the following percentiles (represented survival scenario) from each overall survival (OS) curve: 90th (worst-case), 75th (lower-typical), 50th (median), 25th (upper-typical), and 10th (best-case). We tested whether these scenarios can be estimated for each OS curve by multiplying its median by 4 multiples: 0.25 (worst-case), 0.5 (lower-typical), 2 (upper-typical), and 3 (best-case).
resultsWe identified 15 trials with 8025 patients. For first-line combination targeted therapy treatment groups, the median (interquartile range, IQR) in months for each percentile was: 90th, 6.2 (6.0-6.5); 75th, 11.3 (11.3-11.4); and median, 24.4 (23.5-25.3). For the first-line combination immunotherapy treatment group, the percentiles in months were: 90th, 3.9 (2.8-4.5); 75th, 13.4 (10.1-15.4), median 73 (not applicable). In targeted therapy groups, simple multiples of the median OS were accurate for estimating the 90th percentile in 80%; 75th percentile in 40%; 25th percentile in 100%. In immunotherapy groups, these multiples were accurate at 0% for the 90th percentile, and 43% for the 75th percentile. The 90th percentile (worst-case scenario) was better estimated as 1/6× median OS, and the 75th percentile (lower-typical) as 1/3× median OS.
conclusionsSimple multiples of the median OS are a useful framework to estimate scenarios for survival for patients receiving targeted therapies, not immunotherapy. Longer follow-up is required to estimate upper-typical and best-case scenarios.
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