Machine Learning-Based Discrimination of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

Background: Current risk stratification strategies for patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) are limited to traditional methodologies. Objectives: The authors aimed to establish machine learning (ML)-based models to discriminate major cardiovascular events in patients with HCM. Methods: We enrolled consecutive HCM patients from 2 tertiary referral centers and used 25 clinical and echocardiographic features to discriminate major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause death, admission for heart failure (HF-adm), and stroke. The best model was selected for each outcome using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) with 20-fold cross-validation. After testing in the external validation cohort, the relative importance of features in discriminating each outcome was determined using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. Results: In total, 2,111 patients with HCM (age 61.4 ± 13.6 years; 67.6% men) were analyzed. During the median 4.0 years of follow-up, MACE occurred in 341 patients (16.2%). Among the 4 ML models, the logistic regression model achieved the best AUROC of 0.800 (95% CI: 0.760-0.841) for MACE, 0.789 (95% CI: 0.736-0.841) for all-cause death, 0.798 (95% CI: 0.736-0.860) for HF-adm, and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.754-0.859) for stroke. The discriminant ability of the logistic regression model remained excellent when applied to the external validation cohort for MACE (AUROC = 0.768), all-cause death (AUROC = 0.750), and HF-adm (AUROC = 0.806). The SHAP analysis identified left atrial diameter and hypertension as important variables for all outcomes of interest. Conclusions: The proposed ML models incorporating various phenotypes from patients with HCM accurately discriminated adverse cardiovascular events and provided variables with high importance for each outcome.