ArticlePloS one2024
Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A Systematic Review of Microsimulation Models in Cardiometabolic Disease: Model Calibration and Validation.Applied health economics and health policy · 2026Pooled it
- Alternative clinical trial designs to find a clinically important effect size of blood pressure-lowering on cognitive impairment and dementia.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2026Article
- Nanomedicine-Driven Modulation of the Gut-Brain Axis: Innovative Approaches to Managing Chronic Inflammation in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's Disease.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Review
- The potential impact of optimal blood pressure treatment intensity to reduce disparities in dementia between Black and White individuals.Journal of Alzheimer's disease : JAD · 2025Observational
- Review
- Effect of Population-Level Blood Pressure Treatment Strategies on Cardiovascular and Cognitive Outcomes.Circulation. Cardiovascular quality and outcomes · 2024Article
- Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).PloS one · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
19 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.