Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38752762›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of preventive cardiology2024

Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions.

Steven H J Hageman, Stephen Kaptoge, Tamar I de Vries, Wentian Lu, Janet M Kist, Hendrikus J A van Os, Mattijs E Numans, Kristi Läll, Martin Bobak, Hynek Pikhart and 72 more

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In one paragraph

Article in European journal of preventive cardiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
  6. A practical guide to the management of dyslipidaemia.Clinical research in cardiology : official journal of the German Cardiac Society · 2026
    Review
  7. Article
  8. Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Observational
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

82 authors.

Steven H J HagemanDepartment of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Stephen KaptogeDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, CambridgeUK.
Tamar I de VriesDepartment of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Wentian LuDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Janet M KistHealth Campus The Hague, Leiden University Medical Center, The Hague, the Netherlands.
Hendrikus J A van OsHealth Campus The Hague, Leiden University Medical Center, The Hague, the Netherlands.
Mattijs E NumansHealth Campus The Hague, Leiden University Medical Center, The Hague, the Netherlands.
Kristi LällEstonian Genome Centre, Institute of Genomics, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia.
Martin BobakDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Hynek PikhartDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Ruzena KubinovaNational Institute of Public Health, Prague, Czech Republic.
Sofia MalyutinaIndependent Researcher.
Andrzej PająkDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland.
Abdonas TamosiunasInstitute of Cardiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Raimund ErbelInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Andreas StangInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Börge SchmidtInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Sara SchrammInstitute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg-Essen, Essen, Germany.
Thomas R BoltonBritish Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, Health Data Research UK, London, UK.
Sarah SpackmanBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Stephan J L BakkerDepartment of Internal Medicine, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Michael BlahaJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Jolanda M A BoerCentre for Prevention, Lifestyle and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Amélie BonnefondInserm/CNRS UMR 1283/8199, Pasteur Institute of Lille, EGID, Lille, France.
Hermann BrennerDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
Eric J BrunnerDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Nancy R CookBrigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Karina DavidsonFeinstein Institutes for Medical Research, Northwell Health, New York, NY, USA.
Elaine DennisonMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Chiara DonfrancescoDepartment of Cardiovascular, Endocrine-Metabolic Diseases and Aging, Istituto Superiore di Sanita', Rome, Italy.
Marcus DörrInstitute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
James S FloydCardiovascular Health Research Unit, Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Ian FordRobertson Center for Biostatistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Michael FuDepartment of Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital/Östra Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Ron T GansevoortDepartment of Internal Medicine, University Medical Centre Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Simona Giampaoliformer Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Richard F GillumHoward University Hospital, Washington, DC, USA.
Agustín Gómez-de-la-CámaraInstituto de Investigación Hospital 12 de Octubre, Madrid, Spain.
Lise Lund HåheimInstitute of Oral Biology, Faculty of Dentistry, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Per-Olof HanssonDepartment of Molecular and Clinical Medicine, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska Academy, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Peter HarmsDepartment of General Practice, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Steve E HumphriesInstitute of Cardiovascular Science, Faculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
M Kamran IkramDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
J Wouter JukemaDepartment of Cardiology, Leiden University Medical Center, The Netherlands.
Maryam KavousiDepartment of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Stefan KiechlDepartment of Neurology, Innsbruck Medical University and VASCage, Research Centre on Vascular Ageing and Stroke, Innsbruck, Austria.
Anna Kucharska-NewtonCollege of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Kentucky, KY, USA.
David Lora PablosInstituto de Investigación Hospital 12 de Octubre, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Madrid, Spain.
Kunihiro MatsushitaBloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Haakon E MeyerNorwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Karel G M MoonsJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, UMC Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Martin Bødtker MortensenDepartment of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital - Herlev Gentofte, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Mirthe MuilwijkDepartment of Epidemiology and Data Science, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Børge G NordestgaardDepartment of Clinical Biochemistry, Copenhagen University Hospital - Herlev Gentofte, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Chris PackardSchool of Cardiovascular & Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Luigi PamieriDepartment of Cardiovascular, Dysmetabolic and Aging-associated Diseases, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Demosthenes PanagiotakosHarokopio University, Athens, Greece.
Annette PetersInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
Louis PotierUniversité Paris City, Paris, France.
Rui ProvidenciaInstitute of Health Informatics Research, University College London, London, UK.
Bruce M PsatyCardiovascular Health Research Unit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Paul M RidkerBrigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
Beatriz RodriguezUniversity of Hawaii and Tecnologico de Monterrey, Honolulu, HI, USA.
Annika RosengrenSahlgrenska University Hospital and Östra Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden.
Naveed SattarSchool of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Health, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Ben SchöttkerDivision of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany.
Joseph E SchwartzColumbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Steven SheaCollege of Physicians & Surgeons and Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, NY, USA.
Martin J ShipleyDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK.
Reecha SofatDepartment of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Barbara ThorandInstitute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany.
W M Monique VerschurenCentre for Prevention, Lifestyle and Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Henry VölzkeInstitute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
Nicholas J WarehamMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Leo WestburyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Peter WilleitBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Bin ZhouFaculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
John DaneshBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Frank L J VisserenDepartment of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Emanuele Di AngelantonioDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, CambridgeUK.
Lisa PennellsDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, CambridgeUK.
Jannick A N DorresteijnDepartment of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-0190-8526

Funding

BHF Centre of Research RE/18/1/34212British Heart Foundation SP/09/002; RG/13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946British United Provident Association UK FoundationCambridge Biomedical Research Centre BRC-1215-20014Department of Health and Social CareEstonian Research CouncilEuropean Regional Development Fund 2014-2020.4.01.15-0012European UnionGlaxoSmithKlineHigh-Performance Computing Center of University of TartuNational Institute for Health ResearchNational Science Centre 2018/29/B/NZ7/02118NIHRUK Medical Research Council MR/L003120/1UK NIHR
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsThe 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals. METHODS AND

resultsThe updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region.

conclusionBy taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesHeart Disease Risk FactorsAdultAgedDecision Support TechniquesEuropeFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTime FactorsCardiovascular diseaseLifetimePreventionPrimary preventionRisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID38752762
PMCPMC11464100

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