ArticleBMC oral health2024
Key factors in the future of oral and dental health in Iran using scenario writing approach.
Article in BMC oral health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Dental caries burden across age groups in Kerman province, Iran (1992-2025): a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC oral health · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Complaint trends of dental malpractice in Tehran, Iran: a retrospective study (2016-2022).The Saudi dental journal · 2025Article
- Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Persian version of the oral health values scale.BMC oral health · 2025Article
- Exploring the Need for Medical Futures Studies: Insights From a Scoping Review of Health Care Foresight.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundOral and dental health can significantly impact individuals' quality of life. The World Health Organization introduces oral health as one of the essential priorities of public health worldwide. Given the lack of studies on the future of oral and dental health in Iran, this study used a futures studies approach to identify the factors in oral and dental health in Iran through scenario writing.
methodsThis study was conducted in three stages including the scenario writing approach, qualitative methods, and exploratory future research. First, potential variables affecting future oral and dental health systems were extracted through interviews. The focus group discussion determined the uncertainty and importance of the variables. Then, the cross-impact balance matrix was imported into the Scenario Wizard software to identify the different states of the scenario generator variables and compatible scenarios were extracted.
resultsSeventy variables were extracted as key variables affecting the future of oral and dental health. Regarding the importance and uncertainty, seventeen variables scored higher and fell into policy and governance, economy and financing, social, service delivery, and technology, serving as five categories of scenario generators. Fifteen scenarios with weak consistency and three with strong consistency were obtained using the Cross-Impact Balance matrix in Scenario Wizard software.
conclusionThe probability of a pessimistic scenario where all five categories of the scenarios were in the worst possible state was higher due to its consistency. The government's support policies and commitment to oral and dental health were two key factors in the future. Achieving an optimistic and favorable scenario for the future of the country's oral and dental health system depends on the government and policymakers in the health sector adopting a positive attitude towards the role of oral and dental health services in improving societal health. In this scenario, the five categories of the scenario generators were in the best condition.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.