Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38741163›Full record

ArticleJournal of translational medicine2024

Development of a machine learning-based model to predict prognosis of alpha-fetoprotein-positive hepatocellular carcinoma.

Bingtian Dong, Hua Zhang, Yayang Duan, Senbang Yao, Yongjian Chen, Chaoxue Zhang

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Article in Journal of translational medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Bingtian Dong *Department of Ultrasound, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Hua Zhang *Department of Ultrasound, Affiliated Hangzhou First People's Hospital, School of Medicine, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China.
Yayang DuanDepartment of Ultrasound, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Senbang YaoDepartment of Oncology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China.
Yongjian ChenDepartment of Ultrasound, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China. 962106486@qq.com.
Chaoxue ZhangDepartment of Ultrasound, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China. zcxay@163.com.ORCID 0000-0002-3037-8819

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPatients with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-positive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have aggressive biological behavior and poor prognosis. Therefore, survival time is one of the greatest concerns for patients with AFP-positive HCC. This study aimed to demonstrate the utilization of six machine learning (ML)-based prognostic models to predict overall survival of patients with AFP-positive HCC.

methodsData on patients with AFP-positive HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Six ML algorithms (extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost], logistic regression [LR], support vector machine [SVM], random forest [RF], K-nearest neighbor [KNN], and decision tree [ID3]) were used to develop the prognostic models of patients with AFP-positive HCC at one year, three years, and five years. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), confusion matrix, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model.

resultsA total of 2,038 patients with AFP-positive HCC were included for analysis. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 60.7%, 28.9%, and 14.3%, respectively. Seventeen features regarding demographics and clinicopathology were included in six ML algorithms to generate a prognostic model. The XGBoost model showed the best performance in predicting survival at 1-year (train set: AUC = 0.771; test set: AUC = 0.782), 3-year (train set: AUC = 0.763; test set: AUC = 0.749) and 5-year (train set: AUC = 0.807; test set: AUC = 0.740). Furthermore, for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival prediction, the accuracy in the training and test sets was 0.709 and 0.726, 0.721 and 0.726, and 0.778 and 0.784 for the XGBoost model, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA exhibited good predictive performance as well.

conclusionsThe XGBoost model exhibited good predictive performance, which may provide physicians with an effective tool for early medical intervention and improve the survival of patients.

Indexed as

alpha-FetoproteinsCarcinoma, HepatocellularLiver NeoplasmsMachine LearningAlgorithmsArea Under CurveCalibrationFemaleHumansMalePrognosisROC Curvealpha-FetoproteinsHepatocellular carcinomaMachine learningPredictive analyticsSurvivalXGBoost algorithm

Identifiers

PMID38741163
PMCPMC11092049

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.