ArticlePNAS nexus2024
Forecasting drug-overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels.
Article in PNAS nexus, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Investigation of serum concentration and the type of opioid used in patients with opium poisoning.Toxicology reports · 2026Article
- Ethical challenges and opportunities for integrating predictive analytics in community-based overdose prevention.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Review
- Alcohol-induced deaths in the United States across age, race, gender, geography, and the COVID-19 pandemic.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Temporal trend of drug overdose-related deaths and excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: a population-based study in the United States from 2012 to 2022.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- A Pharmacogenomics-Based In Silico Investigation of Opioid Prescribing in Post-operative Spine Pain Management and Personalized Therapy.Cellular and molecular neurobiology · 2024Article
- Implementation and Assessment of Machine Learning Models for Forecasting Suspected Opioid Overdoses in Emergency Medical Services Data.AMIA ... Annual Symposium proceedings. AMIA Symposium · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The drug-overdose crisis in the United States continues to intensify. Fatalities have increased 5-fold since 1999 reaching a record high of 108,000 deaths in 2021. The epidemic has unfolded through distinct waves of different drug types, uniquely impacting various age, gender, race, and ethnic groups in specific geographical areas. One major challenge in designing interventions and efficiently delivering treatment is forecasting age-specific overdose patterns at the local level. To address this need, we develop a forecasting method that assimilates observational data obtained from the CDC WONDER database with an age-structured model of addiction and overdose mortality. We apply our method nationwide and to three select areas: Los Angeles County, Cook County, and the five boroughs of New York City, providing forecasts of drug-overdose mortality and estimates of relevant epidemiological quantities, such as mortality and age-specific addiction rates.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.