Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38724258›Full record

ArticleEpidemiology and infection2024

Long-term outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 variants and other respiratory infections: evidence from the Virus Watch prospective cohort in England.

Sarah Beale, Alexei Yavlinsky, Wing L E Fong, Vincent G Nguyen, Jana Kovar, Theo Vos, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Andrew C Hayward, Ibrahim Abubakar, Robert W Aldridge

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Age-Related Changes in the Clinical Picture of Long COVID.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Sarah BealeInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4038-7460
Alexei YavlinskyInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
Wing L E FongInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
Vincent G NguyenInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
Jana KovarInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.
Theo VosThe Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Sarah Wulf HansonThe Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Andrew C HaywardInstitute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK.
Ibrahim AbubakarFaculty of Population Health Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
Robert W AldridgeInstitute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC 19070Medical Research Council MR/V028375/1Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 206602
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study compared the likelihood of long-term sequelae following infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants, other acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and non-infected individuals. Participants (n=5,630) were drawn from Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort investigating SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology in England. Using logistic regression, we compared predicted probabilities of developing long-term symptoms (>2 months) during different variant dominance periods according to infection status (SARS-CoV-2, other ARI, or no infection), adjusting for confounding by demographic and clinical factors and vaccination status. SARS-CoV-2 infection during early variant periods up to Omicron BA.1 was associated with greater probability of long-term sequalae (adjusted predicted probability (PP) range 0.27, 95% CI = 0.22-0.33 to 0.34, 95% CI = 0.25-0.43) compared with later Omicron sub-variants (PP range 0.11, 95% CI 0.08-0.15 to 0.14, 95% CI 0.10-0.18). While differences between SARS-CoV-2 and other ARIs (PP range 0.08, 95% CI 0.04-0.11 to 0.23, 95% CI 0.18-0.28) varied by period, all post-infection estimates substantially exceeded those for non-infected participants (PP range 0.01, 95% CI 0.00, 0.02 to 0.03, 95% CI 0.01-0.06). Variant was an important predictor of SARS-CoV-2 post-infection sequalae, with recent Omicron sub-variants demonstrating similar probabilities to other contemporaneous ARIs. Further aetiological investigation including between-pathogen comparison is recommended.

Indexed as

COVID-19Respiratory Tract InfectionsSARS-CoV-2AdolescentAdultAgedEnglandFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesYoung AdultCOVID-19Long Covidpost-viral syndromesSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID38724258
PMCPMC11106725

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.