Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38723405›Full record

ArticleJournal of anxiety disorders2024

Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning.

Adam Horwitz, Kaitlyn McCarthy, Stacey L House, Francesca L Beaudoin, Xinming An, Thomas C Neylan, Gari D Clifford, Sarah D Linnstaedt, Laura T Germine, Scott L Rauch and 25 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of anxiety disorders, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Scoping Review of Experience Sampling Methodology Investigations of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms.Clinical psychology : a publication of the Division of Clinical Psychology of the American Psychological Association · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

35 authors.

Adam HorwitzDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA. Electronic address: ahor@umich.edu.
Kaitlyn McCarthyDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Stacey L HouseDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA.
Francesca L BeaudoinDepartment of Epidemiology, Brown University, Providence, RI 02930, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI 02930, USA.
Xinming AnInstitute for Trauma Recovery, Department of Anesthesiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27559, USA.
Thomas C NeylanDepartments of Psychiatry and Neurology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Gari D CliffordDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA; Department of Biomedical Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology and Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.
Sarah D LinnstaedtInstitute for Trauma Recovery, Department of Anesthesiology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27559, USA.
Laura T GermineInstitute for Technology in Psychiatry, McLean Hospital, Belmont, MA 02478, USA; The Many Brains Project, Belmont, MA 02478, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Scott L RauchInstitute for Technology in Psychiatry, McLean Hospital, Belmont, MA 02478, USA; Department of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Psychiatry, McLean Hospital, Belmont, MA 02478, USA.
John P HaranDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, MA 01655, USA.
Alan B StorrowDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN 37232, USA.
Christopher LewandowskiDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Henry Ford Health System, Detroit, MI 48202, USA.
Paul I MuseyDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN 46202, USA.
Phyllis L HendryDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Florida College of Medicine -Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL 32209, USA.
Sophia SheikhDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Florida College of Medicine -Jacksonville, Jacksonville, FL 32209, USA.
Christopher W JonesDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Cooper Medical School of Rowan University, Camden, NJ 08103, USA.
Brittany E PunchesDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Ohio State University College of Nursing, Columbus, OH 43210, USA.
Robert A SworDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI 48309, USA.
Lauren A HudakDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA 30329, USA.
Jose L PascualDepartment of Surgery, Department of Neurosurgery, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA; Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Mark J SeamonPerelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA; Department of Surgery, Division of Traumatology, Surgical Critical Care and Emergency Surgery, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA.
Erica HarrisDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Einstein Medical Center, Philadelphia, PA 19107, USA.
Claire PearsonDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Wayne State University, Ascension St. John Hospital, Detroit, MI 48202, USA.
David A PeakDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA 02114, USA.
Robert M DomeierDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Trinity Health-Ann Arbor, Ypsilanti, MI 48197, USA.
Niels K RathlevDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School-Baystate, Springfield, MA 01107, USA.
Paulina SergotDepartment of Emergency Medicine, McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Leon D SanchezDepartment of Emergency Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA 02115, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Steven E BruceDepartment of Psychological Sciences, University of Missouri - St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA.
Jutta JoormannDepartment of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.
Steven E HarteDepartment of Anesthesiology, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA; Department of Internal Medicine-Rheumatology, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Karestan C KoenenDepartment of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA.
Samuel A McLeanDepartment of Emergency Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27559, USA; Institute for Trauma Recovery, Department of Psychiatry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27559, USA.
Srijan SenDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Longitudinal Assessment of Post-traumatic SyndromesU01MH110925 · NIMH · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI KESSLER, RONALD C, KOENEN, KARESTAN C · 2016 to 2020
$25.8M
Low-burden Adaptive Mobile Interventions for Mood and Suicide RiskK23MH131761 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI HORWITZ, ADAM GABRIEL · 2022 to 2025
$690k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NIMH NIH HHS K23 MH131761NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH110925
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

Indexed as

Machine LearningStress Disorders, Post-TraumaticAdultFemaleHumansLongitudinal StudiesMaleMiddle AgedEmergency servicesMachine learningMobile assessmentPosttraumatic stress disorderTrauma

Identifiers

PMID38723405
PMCPMC11215748

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.