ArticleDigestive diseases and sciences2024
Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030.
Article in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trends and disparities for co-existent pancreatic cancer and cardiovascular-related deaths: a retrospective 1999-2020 analysis of CDC WONDER data.Cardio-oncology (London, England) · 2026Article
- Effectiveness of multidisciplinary team collaboration in focal pancreatic lesion management: a systematic review.Abdominal radiology (New York) · 2026Review
- Preoperative Quality of Life as Predictor of Postoperative Early Recurrence and Overall Survival in Patients with Pancreatic and Periampullary Adenocarcinoma.Journal of gastrointestinal cancer · 2026Article
- Pancreatic Cancer Education: A Scoping Review of Evidence Across Patients, Professionals and the Public.Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.) · 2026Review
- Targeting TGF-βR1 Signaling Pathway in Pancreatic Cancer: A Potential Approach with Synthetic Flavanols.Anti-cancer agents in medicinal chemistry · 2026Article
- The Burden of Pancreatic Cancer in Five East Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction up to 2036: A Systemic Analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021.Cancer medicine · 2025Article
- The diagnostic value of LncRNA NEAT1 targeting miR-129-5p in pancreatic cancer patients.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Global burden of esophageal diseases: a comprehensive analysis of disease trends and risk factors from 1990 to 2021.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Distribution, Risk Factors and Epidemiological Trends of Pancreatic Cancer Across Countries' Income Levels: A Comprehensive Analysis.Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.) · 2025Article
- Current paradigm and futuristic vision on new-onset diabetes and pancreatic cancer research.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2025Review
- A machine-learning approach for pancreatic neoplasia classification based on plasma extracellular vesicles.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Prediction of 12-month recurrence of pancreatic cancer using machine learning and prognostic factors.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Article
- Global, regional and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors from 2019 to 2021, with projection to 2044.Frontiers in oncology · 2024Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
aimTo explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade.
methodsData were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030.
resultsOverall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends.
conclusionsThe age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.
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