Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38714654›Full record

ArticleNature communications2024

Seasonal antigenic prediction of influenza A H3N2 using machine learning.

Syed Awais W Shah, Daniel P Palomar, Ian Barr, Leo L M Poon, Ahmed Abdul Quadeer, Matthew R McKay

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Syed Awais W ShahDepartment of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong SAR, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5017-7045
Daniel P PalomarDepartment of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong SAR, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5250-4874
Ian BarrWHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7351-418X
Leo L M PoonSchool of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9101-7953
Ahmed Abdul QuadeerDepartment of Electronic and Computer Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong SAR, China. ahmed.quadeer@unimelb.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5295-9067
Matthew R McKayDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. matthew.mckay@unimelb.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8086-2545

Funding

Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee (RGC, UGC) 16201620Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee (RGC, UGC) T11-712/19-N
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Antigenic characterization of circulating influenza A virus (IAV) isolates is routinely assessed by using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays for surveillance purposes. It is also used to determine the need for annual influenza vaccine updates as well as for pandemic preparedness. Performing antigenic characterization of IAV on a global scale is confronted with high costs, animal availability, and other practical challenges. Here we present a machine learning model that accurately predicts (normalized) outputs of HI assays involving circulating human IAV H3N2 viruses, using their hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) sequences and associated metadata. Each season, the model learns an updated nonlinear mapping of genetic to antigenic changes using data from past seasons only. The model accurately distinguishes antigenic variants from non-variants and adaptively characterizes seasonal dynamics of HA1 sites having the strongest influence on antigenic change. Antigenic predictions produced by the model can aid influenza surveillance, public health management, and vaccine strain selection activities.

Indexed as

Antigens, ViralHemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza VirusInfluenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanMachine LearningSeasonsAntigenic VariationHemagglutination Inhibition TestsHumansInfluenza VaccinesAntigens, ViralHemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza VirusInfluenza Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID38714654
PMCPMC11076571

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.