ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2026
External validation of predictive models for new vertebral fractures following percutaneous vertebroplasty.
Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prediction models for subsequent vertebral fractures after percutaneous vertebroplasty or kyphoplasty: a systematic review and critical appraisal.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Pooled it
- Comparisons of phantom-based and phantomless QCT bone mineral density for predicting subsequent fractures.Bone & joint research · 2026Article
- Risk factors and external validation of nomogram model for patients with postoperative hemoglobin < 80 g/L after lumbar interbody fusion surgery.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2026Article
- Refracture and Mortality Following Surgical Management of Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis with Patient-Level Survival Modeling.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and External Validation of Predictive Models for Multidrug-Resistant Bacterial Infections in Diabetic Foot Ulcers.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo investigate the external validation and scalability of four predictive models regarding new vertebral fractures following percutaneous vertebroplasty.
methodsUtilizing retrospective data acquired from two centers, compute the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and Kaplan-Meier plot to assess the model's discrimination and calibration.
resultsIn the external validation of Zhong et al.'s 2015 predictive model for the probability of new fractures post-vertebroplasty, the AUC for re-fracture at 1, 2, and 3 years postoperatively was 0.570, 0.617, and 0.664, respectively. The AUC for Zhong et al.'s 2016 predictive model for the probability of new fractures in neighboring vertebrae was 0.738. Kaplan-Meier plot results for both models indicated a significantly lower incidence of re-fracture in low-risk patients compared to high-risk patients. Li et al.'s 2021 model had an AUC of 0.518, and its calibration curve suggested an overestimation of the probability of new fractures. Li et al.'s 2022 model had an AUC of 0.556, and its calibration curve suggested an underestimation of the probability of new fractures.
conclusionThe external validation of four models demonstrated that the predictive model proposed by Zhong et al. in 2016 exhibited superior external generalization capabilities.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.