Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38713084›Full record

ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2024

Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North America.

Ashish A Deshmukh, Yueh-Yun Lin, Haluk Damgacioglu, Meredith Shiels, Sally B Coburn, Raynell Lang, Keri N Althoff, Richard Moore, Michael J Silverberg, Alan G Nyitray and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
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Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  7. International journal of molecular sciences · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Ashish A DeshmukhCancer Control Program, Hollings Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8936-8108
Yueh-Yun LinDepartment of Management, Policy, and Community Health, UTHealth School of Public Health, Houston, TX, USA.
Haluk DamgaciogluCancer Control Program, Hollings Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA.
Meredith ShielsDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8390-6091
Sally B CoburnDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Raynell LangSouthern Alberta Clinic and Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Keri N AlthoffDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Richard MooreSchool of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Michael J SilverbergKaiser Permanente Northern California, Oakland, CA, USA.
Alan G NyitrayClinical Cancer Center, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI, USA.
Jagpreet ChhatwalInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8741-4430
Kalyani SonawaneCancer Control Program, Hollings Cancer Center, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5501-3034
Keith SigelDepartment of Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4051-4861

Funding

WOMEN'S HEALTH AGENDAU01AI038858 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI BENSON, CONSTANCE ANN · 1996 to 2008
$157.5M
AIDS Clinical Trials Group NetworkU01AI068636 · NIAID · SOCIAL AND SCIENTIFIC SYSTEMS, INC. · PI KURITZKES, DANIEL R. · 2006 to 2010
$147.1M
UCSF CLINICAL AND TRANSLATIONAL SCIENCE INSTITUTEUL1RR024131 · NCRR · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI JOHNSTON, S. CLAIBORNE · 2006 to 2011
$111.2M
University of Washington/Fred Hutch Center for AIDS ResearchP30AI027757 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI CONNIE L CELUM · 1988 to 2026
$104.9M
Unsolicited R24 for the CFAR-Network of Integrated Clinical Sciences, CNICSR24AI067039 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI Michael S. Saag · 2006 to 2026
$99.4M
Virology CoreP30AI027763 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI STEVEN Grant DEEKS · 1988 to 2026
$93.6M
Implementing a Maternal health and PRegnancy Outcomes Vision for Everyone (IMPROVE)UL1TR002378 · NCATS · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Andres J Garcia, Elizabeth O. Ofili · 2017 to 2026
$92.1M
Virology CoreP30AI027767 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA AT BIRMINGHAM · PI Paul A. Goepfert · 1988 to 2026
$84.1M
STATISTICAL AND DATA MANAGEMENT CENTERU01AI038855 · NIAID · HARVARD UNIVERSITY (SCH OF PUBLIC HLTH) · PI HUGHES, MICHAEL DAVID · 1996 to 2006
$78.1M
Engaging University of California Stakeholders for Biorespository ResearchUL1TR000004 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI GRANDIS, JENNIFER RUBIN · 2012 to 2015
$78.0M
Studies of Ocular Complications of AIDS - Coordinating CenterU10EY008057 · NEI · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI VAN NATTA, MARK L · 1988 to 2012
$78.0M
Virology, Immunology, and Microbiology CoreP30AI050410 · NIAID · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI DAVID M. MARGOLIS · 2001 to 2026
$76.9M
AHRQ HHSCDC HHSCIHREunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human DevelopmentGrady Health System CBR-86906HRSA HHSIntramural NIH HHS Z01 CP010176National Institute for Mental HealthNational Institute of Allergy And Infectious DiseasesNational Institute of Dental & Craniofacial ResearchNational Program of Cancer RegistriesNCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR000421NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000004NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR000083NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002378NCATS NIH HHS UM1 TR004406NCI NIH HHS N01 CP001004NCI NIH HHS N02 CP055504NCI NIH HHS R01 CA232888NCRR NIH HHS UL1 RR024131NEI NIH HHS K23 EY013707NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008052NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008057NEI NIH HHS U10 EY008067NHGRI NIH HHSNHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146192NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146193NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146194NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146201NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146202NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146203NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146204NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146205NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146208NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146240NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146241NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146242NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146245NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL146333NIAAA NIH HHS R01 AA016893NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA013566NIAAA NIH HHS U01 AA020790NIAAA NIH HHS U24 AA020794NIAID NIH HHS F31 AI124794NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI093197NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI131895NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI065298NIAID NIH HHS K24 AI118591NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027757NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027763NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI027767NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036219NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI050409NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI050410NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI110527NIAID NIH HHS R24 AI067039NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038855NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI038858NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068634NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI068636NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069432NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069434NIAID NIH HHS U01 AI069918NIA NIH HHS R01 AG053100NIDA NIH HHS F31 DA037788NIDA NIH HHS K24 DA000432NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA011602NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA012568NIDA NIH HHS R34 DA045592NIDA NIH HHS U01 DA036297NIDA NIH HHS U01 DA036935NIDCD NIH HHSNIDDK NIH HHSNIGMS NIH HHS U54 GM133807NIH HHSNIH HHS R01CA232888NIMHD NIH HHS G12 MD007583NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH062246NINDS NIH HHSNINR NIH HHSOntario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAnal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV. Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among people with HIV in the United States and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve.

methodsUsing data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends nationally in the United States and Canada and in different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with people without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among American people with HIV.

resultsBetween 2001 and 2016 in the United States, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2% per year (95% confidence interval = ‒4.4% to ‒0.1%), particularly in the Western region (‒3.8% per year, 95% confidence interval = ‒6.5% to ‒0.9%). In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, more than 4-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared with the Northeast among men who have sex with men who have HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 cell count and was elevated among those individuals with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among American people with HIV is expected to decrease through 2035, but more than 70% of cases will continue to occur in men who have sex with men who have HIV and in people with AIDS.

conclusionGeographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. Men who have sex with men who have HIV and people with prior AIDS diagnoses will continue to bear the highest anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

Indexed as

Anus NeoplasmsHIV InfectionsAdultAgedCanadaFemaleHomosexuality, MaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNorth AmericaRisk FactorsUnited States

Identifiers

PMID38713084
PMCPMC11378305

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.