ArticleAnnals of epidemiology2024
Using decision tree models and comprehensive statewide data to predict opioid overdoses following prison release.
Article in Annals of epidemiology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A chain of survival for drug overdose.Resuscitation plus · 2025Article
- Bolstering the HIV Surveillance System Through Innovative Methods, Technologic Advances, and Community-Driven Solutions to Inform Intervention Efforts and End the Epidemic.Current HIV/AIDS reports · 2024Review
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
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Abstract
purposeIdentifying predictors of opioid overdose following release from prison is critical for opioid overdose prevention.
methodsWe leveraged an individually linked, state-wide database from 2015-2020 to predict the risk of opioid overdose within 90 days of release from Massachusetts state prisons. We developed two decision tree modeling schemes: a model fit on all individuals with a single weight for those that experienced an opioid overdose and models stratified by race/ethnicity. We compared the performance of each model using several performance measures and identified factors that were most predictive of opioid overdose within racial/ethnic groups and across models.
resultsWe found that out of 44,246 prison releases in Massachusetts between 2015-2020, 2237 (5.1%) resulted in opioid overdose in the 90 days following release. The performance of the two predictive models varied. The single weight model had high sensitivity (79%) and low specificity (56%) for predicting opioid overdose and was more sensitive for White non-Hispanic individuals (sensitivity = 84%) than for racial/ethnic minority individuals.
conclusionsStratified models had better balanced performance metrics for both White non-Hispanic and racial/ethnic minority groups and identified different predictors of overdose between racial/ethnic groups. Across racial/ethnic groups and models, involuntary commitment (involuntary treatment for alcohol/substance use disorder) was an important predictor of opioid overdose.
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