ArticleScientific reports2024
Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- A global decline in atmospheric dust during the 21st century.Science advances · 2026Article
- Assessment of future meteorological droughts in Iran.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Climate change impact on future Egypt's wind energy: a CMIP6-based assessment of power output.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Knowledge-Behavior and Adherence Gap in Protective Eyewear Use Among Outdoor Workers with High Ocular Surface Disease Burden in a Desert Environment.Patient preference and adherence · 2026Article
- Increasing physical work capacity losses due to heat stress increase.International journal of biometeorology · 2025Article
- Article
- Amplification of temperature extremes in Arabian Peninsula under warmer worlds.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer and an eastward shift in winter in the last four decades, with the changes in the location and intensity of the thermal lows and subtropical highs also modulating the dust loading and cloud cover over the Middle East and North Africa region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements and generally captures the trends in the ERA-5 data over the historical period. For the most extreme climate change scenario and towards the end of the twenty-first century, the subtropical highs are projected to migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent with the projected expansion of the Hadley Cells, with a weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer by up to a third and a strengthening of the subtropical jet in winter typically by 10% except over the eastern Mediterranean where the storm track is projected to shift polewards. The length of the seasons is projected to remain about the same, suggesting the warming is likely to be felt uniformly throughout the year.
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