ArticlePerioperative medicine (London, England)2024
Nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.
Article in Perioperative medicine (London, England), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Comparison of machine learning and nomogram to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction combined with cardiogenic shock: a retrospective study based on the eICU-CRD and MIMIC-IV databases.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Article
- Development and Validation of a Routine Electronic Health Record-Based Delirium Prediction Model for Surgical Patients Without Dementia: Retrospective Case-Control Study.JMIR perioperative medicine · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a predictive model for postoperative delirium after traumatic cervical spinal cord surgery.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveTo retrospectively analyze the risk factors for postoperative delirium (POD) after orthopedic surgery in elderly patients and establish an individualized nomogram to predict the risk of POD.
methodsThe data of 1011 patients who underwent orthopedic surgery from January 2019 to January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to screen for independent risk factors. Stepwise regression was conducted to screen risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of POD after orthopedic surgery in elderly individuals, and nomogram validation analyses were performed.
resultsThe logistic regression results showed that age (≥ 75 years old vs. < 75 years old; odds ratio (OR) = 2.889; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.149, 7.264), sex (male vs. female, OR = 2.368; 95% CI, 1.066, 5.261), and preoperative cognitive impairment (yes vs. no, OR = 13.587; 95% CI, 4.360, 42.338) were independent risk factors for POD in elderly patients who underwent orthopedic surgery (P < 0.05). A nomogram was constructed using 7 risk factors, i.e., age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, sex, preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), preoperative pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, and intraoperative infusion volume. The area under the curve (AUC) showed good discrimination (0.867), the slope of the calibration curve was 1.0, and the optimal net benefit of the nomogram from the decision curve analysis (DCA) was 0.01-0.58.
conclusionThis study used 7 risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of POD after major orthopedic surgery in elderly individuals, and the nomogram had good discrimination ability, accuracy, and clinical practicability.
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