Predicting the occurrence of mild cognitive impairment in Parkinson's disease using structural MRI data.

Introduction: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a common symptom observed in individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) and a main risk factor for progressing to dementia. Our objective was to identify early anatomical brain changes that precede the transition from healthy cognition to MCI in PD. Methods: Structural T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging data of PD patients with healthy cognition at baseline were downloaded from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative database. Patients were divided into two groups based on the annual cognitive assessments over a 5-year time span: (i) PD patients with unstable healthy cognition who developed MCI over a 5-year follow-up (PD-UHC, Results: The average accuracy of classifying PD-UHC vs. PD-SHC was 80.76%, with 82.05% sensitivity and 79.48% specificity using 10-fold cross-validation. The performance was similar in the hold-out test sets with all accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity at 76.92%. SHAP analysis showed that the most influential brain regions in the prediction model were located in the frontal, occipital, and cerebellar regions as well as midbrain. Discussion: Our machine learning-based analysis yielded promising results in identifying PD individuals who are at risk of cognitive decline from the earliest disease stage and revealed the brain regions which may be linked to the prospective cognitive decline in PD before clinical symptoms emerge.