External Validation of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation Among Urban Community-Based Chinese Patients With CKD.

Rationale & Objective: The Kidney Failure Risk Equations have been proven to perform well in multinational databases, whereas validation in Asian populations is lacking. This study sought to externally validate the equations in a community-based chronic kidney disease cohort in China. Study Design: A retrospective cohort study. Setting & Participants: Patients with and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m Exposure: Age, sex, eGFR, and albuminuria were included in the 4-variable model, whereas serum calcium, phosphate, bicarbonate, and albumin levels were added to the previously noted variables in the 8-variable model. Outcome: Initiation of long-term dialysis treatment. Analytical Approach: Model discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated by Harrell's C statistic, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis, respectively. Results: A total of 4,587 participants were enrolled for validation of the 4-variable model, whereas 1,414 were enrolled for the 8-variable model. The median times of follow-up were 4.0 (interquartile range: 2.6-6.3) years for the 4-variable model and 3.4 (2.2-5.6) years for the 8-variable model. For the 4-variable model, the C statistics were 0.750 (95% CI: 0.615-0.885) for the 2-year model and 0.766 (0.625-0.907) for the 5-year model, whereas the values were 0.756 (0.629-0.883) and 0.774 (0.641-0.907), respectively, for the 8-variable model. Calibration was acceptable for both the 4-variable and 8-variable models. Decision curve analysis for the models at the 5-year scale performed better throughout different net benefit thresholds than the eGFR-based (<30 mL/min/1.73 m Limitations: A large proportion of patients lack albuminuria measurements, and only a subset of population could provide complete data for the 8-variable equation. Conclusions: The kidney failure risk equations showed acceptable discrimination and calibration and better clinical utility than the eGFR-based strategy for incidence of kidney failure among community-based urban Chinese patients with chronic kidney disease.