Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38684948›Full record

ArticleBMC cancer2024

Progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma.

Meletios Dimopoulos, Pieter Sonneveld, Salomon Manier, Annette Lam, Tito Roccia, Jordan M Schecter, Patricia Cost, Lida Pacaud, Abbey Poirier, Gabriel Tremblay and 3 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Tumor-priming CD8Experimental hematology & oncology · 2025
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Meletios DimopoulosDepartment of Clinical Therapeutics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Pieter SonneveldErasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Salomon ManierUniversity of Lille, Lille, France.
Annette LamJanssen Global Services, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Tito RocciaJanssen Global Services, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Jordan M SchecterJanssen Research & Development, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Patricia CostJanssen Global Services, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Lida PacaudLegend Biotech USA Inc, Somerset, NJ, USA.
Abbey PoirierCytel Inc. Health Economics & Outcomes Research, Waltham, MA, USA.
Gabriel TremblayCytel Inc. Health Economics & Outcomes Research, Waltham, MA, USA.
Tommy LanCytel Inc. Health Economics & Outcomes Research, Waltham, MA, USA.
Satish ValluriJanssen Global Services, Raritan, NJ, USA.
Shaji KumarDepartment of Hematology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA. kumar.shaji@mayo.edu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe goal of the research was to assess the quantitative relationship between median progression-free survival (PFS) and median overall survival (OS) specifically among patients with relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) based on published randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

methodsTwo bibliographic databases (PubMed and Embase, 1970-2017) were systematically searched for RCTs in RRMM that reported OS and PFS, followed by an updated search of studies published between 2010 and 2022 in 3 databases (Embase, MEDLINE, and EBM Reviews, 2010-2022). The association between median PFS and median OS was assessed using the nonparametric Spearman rank and parametric Pearson correlation coefficients. Subsequently, the quantitative relationship between PFS and OS was assessed using weighted least-squares regression adjusted for covariates including age, sex, and publication year. Study arms were weighted by the number of patients in each arm.

resultsA total of 31 RCTs (56 treatment arms, 10,450 patients with RRMM) were included in the analysis. The average median PFS and median OS were 7.1 months (SD 5.5) and 28.1 months (SD 11.8), respectively. The Spearman and Pearson correlation coefficients between median PFS and median OS were 0.80 (P < 0.0001) and 0.79 (P < 0.0001), respectively. In individual treatment arms of RRMM trials, each 1-month increase in median PFS was associated with a 1.72-month (95% CI 1.26-2.17) increase in median OS.

conclusionAnalysis of the relationship between PFS and OS incorporating more recent studies in RRMM further substantiates the use of PFS to predict OS in RRMM.

Indexed as

Multiple MyelomaProgression-Free SurvivalRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicFemaleHumansMaleNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalInstrumental variableOverall survivalProgression-free survivalrelapsed/refractory multiple myelomaSurrogate endpoint

Identifiers

PMID38684948
PMCPMC11057089

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.