ArticleNature ecology & evolution2024
A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe.
Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Climate-Driven Range Shifts Limit the Role of Non-Native Trees for Adaptation Processes of European Forests.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Shaping future forests: how can ecophysiology support climate-smart forest management?The New phytologist · 2026Review
- Redistribution of soil water by mature trees towards dry surface soils and uptake by seedlings in a temperate forest.Plant biology (Stuttgart, Germany) · 2026Article
- The Potential of Size-Exclusion Chromatography for Evaluating the Suitability of Hydrophilic Extracts in Wood Preservation.Polymers · 2026Article
- Climate indicators for Austria since 1961 at 1 km resolution.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Tree Regeneration After Unprecedented Forest Disturbances in Central Europe Is Robust but Maladapted to Future Climate Change.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Optimizing the structure of urban woody plantings for a warming climate: a frequency-weighted exposure framework for woody species in Chongqing, China.Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal Variability of Dendroecological Indicators in Pedunculate Oak (Quercus robur L.) Tree-Rings Across Europe in Relation to Species Distribution Models.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Divergent Trends in Insect Disturbance Across Europe's Temperate and Boreal Forests.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Potential Distribution and Response to Climate Change inBiology · 2025Article
- Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025Review
- Stand Diversity Does Not Mitigate Increased Herbivory on Climate-Matched Oaks in an Assisted Migration Experiment.Plant, cell & environment · 2025Article
- The Forest After Tomorrow: Projecting the Impact of a Collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European Tree-Species Distributions.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Looking back on 2024.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change.Nature ecology & evolution · 2024Article
- Enhancing economic multifunctionality without compromising multidiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality via forest enrichment.Science advances · 2024Article
- Patterns of early post-disturbance reorganization in Central European forests.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Futureproofing Europe's forests.Nature ecology & evolution · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe's forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry-creating mixed forests-might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.
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