Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38683947›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024

Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use and risk of thyroid cancer: Scandinavian cohort study.

Björn Pasternak, Viktor Wintzell, Anders Hviid, Björn Eliasson, Soffia Gudbjörnsdottir, Christian Jonasson, Kristian Hveem, Henrik Svanström, Mads Melbye, Peter Ueda

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 73 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
73citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

73 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. A systematic review of transgender male rodent model methodology.Animal models and experimental medicine · 2025
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  7. Exposure to GLP-1RA and Risk of Structural Progression in Differentiated Thyroid Cancer.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2026
    Observational
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13 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Björn PasternakClinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID 0000-0002-2097-8466
Viktor WintzellClinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Anders HviidDepartment of Epidemiology Research, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Björn EliassonDepartment of Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Soffia GudbjörnsdottirThe Swedish National Diabetes Register, Västra Götalandsregionen, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Christian JonassonHUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, NTNU-Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
Kristian HveemHUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, NTNU-Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
Henrik SvanströmClinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Mads MelbyeHUNT Center for Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology, Department of Public Health and Nursing, Faculty of Medicine and Health Science, NTNU-Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.
Peter UedaClinical Epidemiology Division, Department of Medicine, Solna, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo investigate whether use of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP1) receptor agonists is associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer.

designScandinavian cohort study.

settingDenmark, Norway, and Sweden, 2007-21.

participantsPatients who started GLP1 receptor agonist treatment were compared with patients who started dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor treatment, and in an additional analysis, patients who started sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor treatment.

main outcome measuresThyroid cancer identified from nationwide cancer registers. An active-comparator new user study design was used to minimise risks of confounding and time related biases from using real world studies of drug effects. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios, controlling for potential confounders with propensity score weighting.

resultsThe mean follow-up time was 3.9 years (standard deviation 3.5 years) in the GLP1 receptor agonist group and 5.4 years (standard deviation 3.5 years) in the DPP4 inhibitor group. 76 of 145 410 patients (incidence rate 1.33 events per 10 000 person years) treated with GLP1 receptor agonists and 184 of 291 667 patients (incidence rate 1.46 events per 10 000 person years) treated with DPP4 inhibitors developed thyroid cancer. GLP1 receptor agonist use was not associated with increased risk of thyroid cancer (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.31; rate difference -0.13, 95% confidence interval -0.61 to 0.36 events per 10 000 person years). The hazard ratio for medullary thyroid cancer was 1.19 (0.37 to 3.86). In the additional analysis comparing the GLP1 receptor agonist group with the SGLT2 inhibitor group, the hazard ratio for thyroid cancer was 1.16 (0.65 to 2.05).

conclusionsIn this large cohort study using nationwide data from three countries, GLP1 receptor agonist use was not associated with a substantially increased risk of thyroid cancer over a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. In the main analysis comparing GLP1 receptor agonists with DPP4 inhibitors, the upper limit of the confidence interval was consistent with no more than a 31% increase in relative risk.

Indexed as

Dipeptidyl-Peptidase IV InhibitorsGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsThyroid NeoplasmsAdultAgedCohort StudiesDenmarkDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2FemaleHumansHypoglycemic AgentsIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNorwayProportional Hazards ModelsDipeptidyl-Peptidase IV InhibitorsGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHypoglycemic AgentsSodium-Glucose Transporter 2 Inhibitors

Identifiers

PMID38683947
PMCPMC11004669

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.