ArticlePLOS global public health2024
Prediction models for post-discharge mortality among under-five children with suspected sepsis in Uganda: A multicohort analysis.
Article in PLOS global public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Long-term mortality in pediatric sepsis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Annals of medicine · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Advancing approaches to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality: Protocol for a prospective observational cohort study in Western Kenya.BMJ paediatrics open · 2025Article
- Diverging pathways: exploring the interplay between hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality in paediatric sepsis in low-income settings.BMJ global health · 2025Observational
- Machine learning approaches to identify neonates and young children at risk for postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.BMJ paediatrics open · 2025Observational
- Discharge policies and care practices for children with suspected sepsis: A health facility scan at a nationally representative sample of hospitals and health centres in Uganda.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Post-discharge mortality in suspected pediatric sepsis: Insights from rural and urban healthcare settings in Rwanda.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Systematic review of risk assessment tools for post-discharge mortality among children in sub-Saharan Africa.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Validation of a risk-prediction model for pediatric post-discharge mortality after hospital admission for infection in Rwanda: A prospective cohort study.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Digital solutions in paediatric sepsis: current state, challenges, and opportunities to improve care around the world.The Lancet. Digital health · 2024Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
27 authors at 11 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
In many low-income countries, over five percent of hospitalized children die following hospital discharge. The lack of available tools to identify those at risk of post-discharge mortality has limited the ability to make progress towards improving outcomes. We aimed to develop algorithms designed to predict post-discharge mortality among children admitted with suspected sepsis. Four prospective cohort studies of children in two age groups (0-6 and 6-60 months) were conducted between 2012-2021 in six Ugandan hospitals. Prediction models were derived for six-months post-discharge mortality, based on candidate predictors collected at admission, each with a maximum of eight variables, and internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. 8,810 children were enrolled: 470 (5.3%) died in hospital; 257 (7.7%) and 233 (4.8%) post-discharge deaths occurred in the 0-6-month and 6-60-month age groups, respectively. The primary models had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.77 (95%CI 0.74-0.80) for 0-6-month-olds and 0.75 (95%CI 0.72-0.79) for 6-60-month-olds; mean AUROCs among the 10 cross-validation folds were 0.75 and 0.73, respectively. Calibration across risk strata was good: Brier scores were 0.07 and 0.04, respectively. The most important variables included anthropometry and oxygen saturation. Additional variables included: illness duration, jaundice-age interaction, and a bulging fontanelle among 0-6-month-olds; and prior admissions, coma score, temperature, age-respiratory rate interaction, and HIV status among 6-60-month-olds. Simple prediction models at admission with suspected sepsis can identify children at risk of post-discharge mortality. Further external validation is recommended for different contexts. Models can be digitally integrated into existing processes to improve peri-discharge care as children transition from the hospital to the community.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.