ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2024
Scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men: a modelling study based on cross-sectional seroprevalence data from the Netherlands, 2022.
Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970-2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects.BMJ global health · 2026Pooled it
- Mpox seroprevalence among sex workers and men who have sex with men preceding sustained urban outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Public Health Impact of the MVA-BN Vaccine During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak: A Systematic Review.Infectious disease reports · 2025Review
- Modelling international spread of clade IIb mpox on the Asian continent.Bulletin of the World Health Organization · 2025Article
- Combining mpox vaccination and behavioural changes to control possible future mpox resurgence among men who have sex with men: a mathematical modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- The third generation modified vaccinia Ankara vaccine is effective in preventing the transmission of mpox.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2024Article
- Orthopoxvirus-specific antibodies wane to undetectable levels 1 year after MVA-BN vaccination of at-risk individuals, the Netherlands, 2022 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
BackgroundFollowing the 2022-2023 mpox outbreak, crucial knowledge gaps exist regarding orthopoxvirus-specific immunity in risk groups and its impact on future outbreaks.AimWe combined cross-sectional seroprevalence studies in two cities in the Netherlands with mathematical modelling to evaluate scenarios of future mpox outbreaks among men who have sex with men (MSM).MethodsSerum samples were obtained from 1,065 MSM attending Centres for Sexual Health (CSH) in Rotterdam or Amsterdam following the peak of the Dutch mpox outbreak and the introduction of vaccination. For MSM visiting the Rotterdam CSH, sera were linked to epidemiological and vaccination data. An in-house developed ELISA was used to detect vaccinia virus (VACV)-specific IgG. These observations were combined with published data on serial interval and vaccine effectiveness to inform a stochastic transmission model that estimates the risk of future mpox outbreaks.ResultsThe seroprevalence of VACV-specific antibodies was 45.4% and 47.1% in Rotterdam and Amsterdam, respectively. Transmission modelling showed that the impact of risk group vaccination on the original outbreak was likely small. However, assuming different scenarios, the number of mpox cases in a future outbreak would be markedly reduced because of vaccination. Simultaneously, the current level of immunity alone may not prevent future outbreaks. Maintaining a short time-to-diagnosis is a key component of any strategy to prevent new outbreaks.ConclusionOur findings indicate a reduced likelihood of large future mpox outbreaks among MSM in the Netherlands under current conditions, but emphasise the importance of maintaining population immunity, diagnostic capacities and disease awareness.
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