A brain structural connectivity biomarker for autism spectrum disorder diagnosis in early childhood.

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with altered brain development, but it is unclear which specific structural changes may serve as potential diagnostic markers, particularly in young children at the age when symptoms become fully established. Furthermore, such brain markers need to meet the requirements of precision medicine and be accurate in aiding diagnosis at an individual rather than only a group level. Objective: This study aimed to identify and model brain-wide differences in structural connectivity using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in young ASD and typically developing (TD) children. Methods: A discovery cohort including 93 ASD and 26 TD children and two independent validation cohorts including 12 ASD and 9 TD children from three different cities in China were included. Brain-wide (294 regions) structural connectivity was measured using DTI (fractional anisotropy, FA) together with symptom severity and cognitive development. A connection matrix was constructed for each child for comparisons between ASD and TD groups. Pattern classification was performed on the discovery dataset and the resulting model was tested on the two independent validation datasets. Results: Thirty-three structural connections showed increased FA in ASD compared to TD children and associated with both autistic symptom severity and impaired general cognitive development. The majority (29/33) involved the frontal lobe and comprised five different networks with functional relevance to default mode, motor control, social recognition, language and reward. Overall, classification achieved very high accuracy of 96.77% in the discovery dataset, and 91.67% and 88.89% in the two independent validation datasets. Conclusions: Identified structural connectivity differences primarily involving the frontal cortex can very accurately distinguish novel individual ASD from TD children and may therefore represent a robust early brain biomarker which can address the requirements of precision medicine.