APSIM-based modeling approach to understand sorghum production environments in Mali.

Sorghum production system in the semi-arid region of Africa is characterized by low yields which are generally attributed to high rainfall variability, poor soil fertility, and biotic factors. Production constraints must be well understood and quantified to design effective sorghum-system improvements. This study uses the state-of-the-art in silico methods and focuses on characterizing the sorghum production regions in Mali for drought occurrence and its effects on sorghum productivity. For this purpose, we adapted the APSIM-sorghum module to reproduce two cultivated photoperiod-sensitive sorghum types across a latitude of major sorghum production regions in Western Africa. We used the simulation outputs to characterize drought stress scenarios. We identified three main drought scenarios: (i) no-stress; (ii) early pre-flowering drought stress; and (iii) drought stress onset around flowering. The frequency of drought stress scenarios experienced by the two sorghum types across rainfall zones and soil types differed. As expected, the early pre-flowering and flowering drought stress occurred more frequently in isohyets < 600 mm, for the photoperiod-sensitive, late-flowering sorghum type. In isohyets above 600 mm, the frequency of drought stress was very low for both cultivars. We quantified the consequences of these drought scenarios on grain and biomass productivity. The yields of the highly-photoperiod-sensitive sorghum type were quite stable across the higher rainfall zones > 600 mm, but was affected by the drought stress in the lower rainfall zones < 600 mm. Comparatively, the less photoperiod-sensitive cultivar had notable yield gain in the driest regions < 600 mm. The results suggest that, at least for the tested crop types, drought stress might not be the major constraint to sorghum production in isohyets > 600 mm. The findings from this study provide the entry point for further quantitative testing of the Genotype × Environment × Management options required to optimize sorghum production in Mali. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13593-023-00909-5.