Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38658459›Full record

Observational studyOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2024

Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

Anitha D Praveen, Thor Aspelund, Stephen J Ferguson, Sigurður Sigurðsson, Vilmundur Guðnason, Halldór Pálsson, David Matchar, Benedikt Helgason

Open access · hybridAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
8.1field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 17 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. CT image-based biomarkers for opportunistic screening of osteoporotic fractures: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2024
    Pooled it
  2. Multimorbidity patterns among fragility fracture patients aged 50 + years in China and the US.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
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  7. Comparison of the time-dependent discriminatory accuracy of femoral strength and bone mineral density for predicting future hip and major osteoporotic fractures: a 16-year follow-up of the AGES-Reykjavik cohort.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Anitha D PraveenCampus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore. anitha.dpraveen@sec.ethz.ch.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7174-139X
Thor AspelundCentre of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Stephen J FergusonCampus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore.
Sigurður SigurðssonThe Icelandic Heart Association Research Institute, Kopavogur, Iceland.
Vilmundur GuðnasonCentre of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Halldór PálssonFaculty of Industrial Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science, School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.
David MatcharDuke-NUS Medical School, Health Services and Systems Research, Singapore, Singapore.
Benedikt HelgasonCampus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE), Future Health Technologies, Singapore-ETH Centre, Singapore, Singapore.
University of Iceland · ISETH Zurich · CHDuke-NUS Medical School · SGIcelandic Heart Association · ISTechnologies pour la Santé · FR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. PURPOSE: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk.

methodsThis prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors.

resultsAt baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk.

conclusionThe risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

Indexed as

Hip FracturesOsteoporotic FracturesRecurrenceSpinal FracturesAgedAged, 80 and overBone DensityDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansIcelandMalePrognosisProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentFractureImminent RiskMulti-state ModelsOlder PeopleOsteoporosis

Identifiers

PMID38658459
PMCPMC11211172
OpenAlexW4395067587

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.