Parasite-mediated predation determines infection in a complex predator-prey-parasite system.

The interplay of host-parasite and predator-prey interactions is critical in ecological dynamics because both predators and parasites can regulate communities. But what is the prevalence of infected prey and predators when a parasite is transmitted through trophic interactions considering stochastic demographic changes? Here, we modelled and analysed a complex predator-prey-parasite system, where parasites are transmitted from prey to predators. We varied parasite virulence and infection probabilities to investigate how those evolutionary factors determine species' coexistence and populations' composition. Our results show that parasite species go extinct when the infection probabilities of either host are small and that success in infecting the final host is more critical for the survival of the parasite. While our stochastic simulations are consistent with deterministic predictions, stochasticity plays an important role in the border regions between coexistence and extinction. As expected, the proportion of infected individuals increases with the infection probabilities. Interestingly, the relative abundances of infected and uninfected individuals can have opposite orders in the intermediate and final host populations. This counterintuitive observation shows that the interplay of direct and indirect parasite effects is a common driver of the prevalence of infection in a complex system.