Respiratory disease patterns in rural Western Uganda, 2019-2022.

Introduction: Respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world, but prospective studies of temporal patterns and risk factors are rare. Methods: We studied people in rural Western Uganda, where respiratory disease is pervasive. We followed 30 adults (ages 22-51 years; 534 observations) and 234 children (ages 3-11 years; 1,513 observations) between May 2019 and July 2022 and collected monthly data on their respiratory symptoms, for a total of 2,047 case records. We examined associations between demographic and temporal factors and respiratory symptoms severity. Results: The timing of our study (before, during, and after the emergence of COVID-19) allowed us to document the effects of public health measures instituted in the region. Incidence rates of respiratory symptoms before COVID-19 lockdown were 568.4 cases per 1,000 person-months in children and 254.2 cases per 1,000 person-months in adults. These rates were 2.6 times higher than the 2019 global average for children but comparable for adults. Younger children (ages 3-6 years) had the highest frequencies and severities of respiratory symptoms. Study participants were most likely to experience symptoms in February, which is a seasonal pattern not previously documented. Incidence and severity of symptoms in children decreased markedly during COVID-19 lockdown, illustrating the broad effects of public health measures on the incidence of respiratory disease. Discussion: Our results demonstrate that patterns of respiratory disease in settings such as Western Uganda resemble patterns in developed economies in some ways (age-related factors) but not in others (increased incidence in children and seasonal pattern). Factors such as indoor air quality, health care access, timing of school trimesters, and seasonal effects (rainy/dry seasons) likely contribute to the differences observed.