Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38648264›Full record

Observational studyInflammatory bowel diseases2025

Prospective Evaluation of the Prediction Score for a Mild Course of Crohn's Disease (PreMiCC) in Newly Diagnosed Patients With Crohn's Disease: The PROGNOS Study.

Wolfgang Kruis, Bernd Bokemeyer, Petra Jessen, Mark Hoesl, Michael Mroß, Julia Morgenstern, Birgitta Reimers, Nike Müller-Grage, Ludger Leifeld

Registry-linked trialAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in Inflammatory bowel diseases, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT02193048 (Prospective Evaluation of a Scoring System in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Crohn's Disease), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT02193048 completednot on this map

Prospective Evaluation of a Scoring System in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Crohn's Disease

TypeobservationalSponsorFerring PharmaceuticalsRan2014 to 2021Enrolled216ConditionsCrohn's DiseaseArmsThis study will evaluate a new clinical scoring system in patients receiving routine treatment
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Wolfgang KruisInternal Medicine, Protestant Hospital, Cologne, Germany.
Bernd BokemeyerDepartment of Internal Medicine, Interdisciplinary Crohn Colitis Centre, Minden, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-2016-6991
Petra JessenGastroenterology Practice, Kiel-Altenholz, Germany.
Mark HoeslGastroenterology Practice Clinic, Nuremberg, Germany.
Michael MroßGastroenterology Practice, Berlin, Germany.
Julia MorgensternInternal Medicine, Protestant Hospital, Cologne, Germany.
Birgitta ReimersDepartment of Internal Medicine, Ferring Arzneimittel GmbH, Kiel, Germany.
Nike Müller-GrageDepartment of Internal Medicine, Ferring Arzneimittel GmbH, Kiel, Germany.
Ludger LeifeldDepartment of Internal Medicine, St. Bernward Hospital, Hildesheim, Germany.

Funding

Ferring Arzneimittel GmbH Kiel, Germany 000150
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsThe course of Crohn's disease (CD) is highly variable. The Prospektive Evaluation eines Score zur Vorhersage eines milden Verlaufsbei neu diagnostizierten Morbus Crohn-Patienten in gastroenterologischen Fachpraxen (PROGNOS) study aimed to determine the frequency of a mild disease course and validate a proposed prediction score.

methodsThe PROGNOS study is a prospective study of CD patients who were newly diagnosed and, except for 1 course of 5-aminosalicylic acid or steroids for ≤10 days, therapy-naïve. Among other predefined inclusion criteria, the initial diagnosis had to be made ≤6 weeks before enrollment. All inception cohort patients were diagnosed and screened consecutively in participating gastroenterology practices in Germany specialized in inflammatory bowel disease. All screened CD patients were scored and, if possible, included in the study for up to 5 years (NCT02193048).

resultsA total of 201 CD patients were included in the study (43.3% male; mean age 33 years, mean follow-up 38 months). Altogether, 29.5% of the patients had a mild course at 36 months. Among those with a score ≤2, therapy escalation at 36 months was necessary for only 24.2%, whereas in the group with a score >2, therapy escalation was necessary for 70.2% of patients. In the Kaplan-Meier curve showing time to therapy escalation in the 2 groups, there was a pronounced and statistically significant divergence of the curves starting at 3 months and extending to 48 months (P < .001).

conclusionsIn this prospective study, about 30% of incident CD patients had a mild disease course. Our suggested PreMiCC (prediction score for a mild course of Crohn's disease) successfully predicted this.

Indexed as

Crohn DiseaseSeverity of Illness IndexAdultDisease ProgressionFemaleFollow-Up StudiesGermanyHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisProspective StudiesYoung AdultCrohn’s diseasemild courseprediction scorevalidation

Identifiers

PMID38648264
PMCPMC11879216

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.