Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38637119›Full record

ArticleBMJ global health2024

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project.

Chryso Th Pallari, Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Elena Critselis, Maria Athanasiadou, Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi, Stefania Papatheodorou, Tianyu Liu, Andreas Artemiou and 36 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ global health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  3. Paid and unpaid productivity losses across 28 European countries due to excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths from 2020 to 2023.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

46 authors.

Chryso Th PallariDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6781-9684
Souzana AchilleosDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1688-9225
Annalisa QuattrocchiDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
John GabelMassachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Elena CritselisDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Maria AthanasiadouHealth Monitoring Unit, Government of the Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Health, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Mohammad Reza Rahmanian HaghighiDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Stefania PapatheodorouDepartment of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Rutgers School of Public Health, Piscataway, New Jersey, USA.
Tianyu LiuDepartment of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Andreas ArtemiouSchool of Information Technologies, University of Limassol, Limassol, Cyprus.
Jose M Rodriguez-LlanesEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy.
Catherine M BennettInstitute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia.
Claudia ZimmermannDepartment of Epidemiology, Medical University of Vienna Center for Public Health, Vienna, Austria.
Eva SchernhammerDepartment of Epidemiology, Medical University of Vienna Center for Public Health, Vienna, Austria.
Natalia Bustos SierraDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Reindert EkelsonDepartment of Epidemiology and Public Health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Jackeline LobatoDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Collective Health (ISC), Federal Fluminense University, Niteroi, Brazil.
Laylla MacedoInstitute of Studies in Collective Health (IESC), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Laust Hvas MortensenMethods and Analysis Department, Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen Oe, Denmark.
Julia CritchleyPopulation Health Research Institute, St George's University of London, London, UK.
Lucy GoldsmithDivision of Health Services Research and Management, School of Health and Psychological Sciences, University of London, City, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6934-1925
Gleb DenissovDepartment of Registries, National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.
Nolwenn Le MeurUMR CNRS 6051 - INSERM U1309, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Rennes, France.
Levan KandelakiDepartment of Medical Statistics, National Center for Disease Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.
Kostas AthanasakisLaboratory for Health Technology Assessment, University of West Attica, Athens, Greece.
Binyamin BinyaminyIsraeli Center of Disease Control, State of Israel Ministry of Health, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Tamar MaorIsraeli Center of Disease Control, State of Israel Ministry of Health, Ramat Gan, Israel.
Fabrizio StracciDepartment of Medicine, Public Health Section, University of Perugia, School of Medicine, Perugia, Italy.
Giuseppe AmbrosioDepartment of Cardiology, University of Perugia School of Medicine, Perugia, Italy.
Kairat DavletovRector Administration, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Nataliya GlushkovaDepartment of Epidemiology, Evidence-Based Medicine and Biostatistics, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Cyndy MartialDepartment of Medicine, University of Mauritius Faculty of Science, Reduit, Mauritius.
Marie Chan SunDepartment of Medicine, University of Mauritius Faculty of Science, Reduit, Mauritius.
Terje P HagenDepartment of Health Management and Health Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Mario ChongDepartamento de Ingeniería, Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru.
Manuel BarronDepartamento de Economia, Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru.
Błażej ŁyszczarzDepartment of Health Economics, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun, Bydgoszcz, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5825-5079
Ivan ErzenPublic Health School, National Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Pedro Arcos GonzalezUnit for Research in Emergency and Disaster, Department of Medicine, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain.
Bo BurströmDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Nataliia PidmurniakDepartment of Internal Medicine, Bogomolets National Medical University, Kyiv, Ukraine.
Olesia VerstiukDepartment of Medical Sciences, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Qian HuangCenter for Rural Health Research, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, USA.
Antonis PolemitisUniversity of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Andreas CharalambousUniversity of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Christiana A DemetriouDepartment of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus demetriou.chri@unic.ac.cy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionTo examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.

methodsTotal, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.

resultsExcess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

conclusionThis study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.

Indexed as

COVID-19Age FactorsFemaleGreeceHumansItalyMalePandemicsControl strategiesCOVID-19EpidemiologyPublic HealthVaccines

Identifiers

PMID38637119
PMCPMC11029481

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.