ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024
Temporal trends in lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and its complications between 2000 and 2022: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
67 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 82 citations in OpenAlex.
- Association of periodontal disease with risk atrial fibrillation: systematic review.BMC oral health · 2025Pooled it
- Dapagliflozin to Reduce Early Recurrence After Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation: The DARE-AF Randomized Clinical Trial.Circulation · 2026Trial
- Ablation versus drug therapy in atrial fibrillation patients with or without prior Pharmacological or direct current cardioversion: results from the CABANA trial.BMC cardiovascular disorders · 2025Trial
- Patient Perspectives on the "Future Patient" Telerehabilitation Program for Atrial Fibrillation: Qualitative Study.JMIR cardio · 2025Trial
- Global Trends in the Burden of Ischemic Stroke Attributable to Diabetes Versus Atrial Fibrillation.Stroke · 2026Article
- Dynamic Risk Assessment for the Development of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Using Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches.Annals of noninvasive electrocardiology : the official journal of the International Society for Holter and Noninvasive Electrocardiology, Inc · 2026Article
- Electrical cardioversion for atrial fibrillation: nationwide trends in Denmark, 2010-2022.Open heart · 2026Article
- Prevalence of atrial fibrillation and associated factors among adult cardiac patients at Ambo University Referral Hospital, West Shewa, Ethiopia, 2024/2025.American heart journal plus : cardiology research and practice · 2026Article
- Three-Dimensional Left Atrial Geometry in Atrial Fibrillation: Imaging Biomarkers, Substrate Phenotyping, and Ablation Outcome Prediction.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- When the Heart and Hip Collide: The Interplay Between Atrial Fibrillation and Neck of Femur Fractures.Journal of cardiovascular development and disease · 2026Review
- Implementation of novel antithrombotic treatment strategies and outcome improvements in patients with myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation over 20 years: a nationwide cohort study.European heart journal. Cardiovascular pharmacotherapy · 2026Article
- Perspectives on phenotype in genetic testing for early-onset atrial fibrillation.European journal of human genetics : EJHG · 2026Article
- Article
- Trends and Disparities in Mortality due to Pulmonary Embolism Among Adults With Atrial Fibrillation From 1999 to 2020: Insights From the CDCWONDER Database.Journal of arrhythmia · 2026Article
- Comprehensive assessment of novel cardiovascular biomarkers in AF.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026Article
- Pharmacological rhythm control strategy and outcomes in the oldest atrial fibrillation patients: an analysis of the nationwide Italian START registry.Age and ageing · 2026Article
- Practical Recommendations for Anticoagulation in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.European journal of clinical investigation · 2026Review
- MATR3 regulates METTL3-Mediated mJournal of bioenergetics and biomembranes · 2026Article
- Arrhythmia-induced cardiomyopathy: focus on atrial fibrillation.Nature reviews. Cardiology · 2026Review
- When Atrial Fibrillation Meets Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis: Can Direct Oral Anticoagulants Bridge the Therapeutic Gap?Biomedicines · 2026Review
7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo examine how the lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and of complications after atrial fibrillation changed over time.
designDanish, nationwide, population based cohort study.
settingPopulation of Denmark from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022.
participants3.5 million individuals (51.7% women and 48.3% men) who did not have atrial fibrillation at 45 years of age or older were followed up until incident atrial fibrillation, migration, death, or end of follow-up, whichever came first. All 362 721 individuals with incident atrial fibrillation (46.4% women and 53.6% men), but with no prevalent complication, were further followed up until incident heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction.
main outcome measuresLifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and lifetime risks of complications after atrial fibrillation over two prespecified periods (2000-10
resultsThe lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased from 24.2% in 2000-10 to 30.9% in 2011-22 (difference 6.7% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.8%)). After atrial fibrillation, the most frequent complication was heart failure with a lifetime risk of 42.9% in 2000-10 and 42.1% in 2011-22 (-0.8% (-3.8% to 2.2%)). Individuals with atrial fibrillation lost 14.4 years with no heart failure. The lifetime risks of stroke and of myocardial infarction after atrial fibrillation decreased slightly between the two periods, from 22.4% to 19.9% for stroke (-2.5% (-4.2% to -0.7%)) and from 13.7% to 9.8% for myocardial infarction (-3.9% (-5.3% to -2.4%). No evidence was reported of a differential decrease between men and women.
conclusionLifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased over two decades of follow-up. In individuals with atrial fibrillation, about two in five developed heart failure and one in five had a stroke over their remaining lifetime after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, with no or only small improvement over time. Stroke risks and heart failure prevention strategies are needed for people with atrial fibrillation.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.