Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38630721›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024

Collective behavior from surprise minimization.

Conor Heins, Beren Millidge, Lancelot Da Costa, Richard P Mann, Karl J Friston, Iain D Couzin

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Neuromodulation of swarming behavior inProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  4. Noise-induced collective memory in schooling fish.Bioinspiration & biomimetics · 2026
    Article
  5. Individual incentives that promote collective intelligence.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Allocentric flocking.Nature communications · 2025
    Article
  9. Neuromodulation of Swarming Behavior inbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Comparing cooperative geometric puzzle solving in ants versus humans.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Conor HeinsDepartment of Collective Behaviour, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Konstanz D-78457, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-5884-7728
Beren MillidgeMedical Research Council Brain Networks Dynamics Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3TH, United Kingdom.
Lancelot Da CostaVERSES Research Lab, Los Angeles, CA 90016.ORCID 0000-0003-0126-4588
Richard P MannDepartment of Statistics, School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0701-1274
Karl J FristonVERSES Research Lab, Los Angeles, CA 90016.ORCID 0000-0001-7984-8909
Iain D CouzinDepartment of Collective Behaviour, Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Konstanz D-78457, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-8556-4558

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Collective motion is ubiquitous in nature; groups of animals, such as fish, birds, and ungulates appear to move as a whole, exhibiting a rich behavioral repertoire that ranges from directed movement to milling to disordered swarming. Typically, such macroscopic patterns arise from decentralized, local interactions among constituent components (e.g., individual fish in a school). Preeminent models of this process describe individuals as self-propelled particles, subject to self-generated motion and "social forces" such as short-range repulsion and long-range attraction or alignment. However, organisms are not particles; they are probabilistic decision-makers. Here, we introduce an approach to modeling collective behavior based on active inference. This cognitive framework casts behavior as the consequence of a single imperative: to minimize surprise. We demonstrate that many empirically observed collective phenomena, including cohesion, milling, and directed motion, emerge naturally when considering behavior as driven by active Bayesian inference-without explicitly building behavioral rules or goals into individual agents. Furthermore, we show that active inference can recover and generalize the classical notion of social forces as agents attempt to suppress prediction errors that conflict with their expectations. By exploring the parameter space of the belief-based model, we reveal nontrivial relationships between the individual beliefs and group properties like polarization and the tendency to visit different collective states. We also explore how individual beliefs about uncertainty determine collective decision-making accuracy. Finally, we show how agents can update their generative model over time, resulting in groups that are collectively more sensitive to external fluctuations and encode information more robustly.

Indexed as

Mass BehaviorModels, BiologicalAnimalsBayes TheoremBehavior, AnimalFishesMotionMovementSocial Behavioractive inferenceagent-based modelsanimal behaviorBayesian inferencecollective motion

Identifiers

PMID38630721
PMCPMC11046639

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.