ArticlePloS one2024
Potential global distribution of Setaria italica, an important species for dryland agriculture in the context of climate change.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Climate-driven redistribution of foxtail millet (Frontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Dynamics of Potential Distribution and Cultivation Areas ofEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Assessing the impacts of climate change and human activities on distribution of Lophatherum gracile in China using the maxent model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Changes in potential distribution and cultivation areas ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of climate change on habitat dynamics ofFrontiers in plant science · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Setaria italica (S. italica, Linnaeus, 1753) is a drought-resistant, barren-tolerant, and widely adapted C-4 crop that plays a vital role in maintaining agricultural and economic stability in arid and barren regions of the world. However, the potential habitat of S. italica under current and future climate scenarios remains to be explored. Predicting the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica and clarifying its ecological requirements can help promote sustainable agriculture, which is crucial for addressing the global food crisis. In this study, we predicted the potential global geographic distribution of S. italica based on 3,154 global distribution records using the Maxent model and ArcGIS software. We assessed the constraints on its potential distribution based on the contribution of environmental factors variables. The predictive accuracy of the Maxent model was evaluated using AUC values, TSS values, and Kappa statistics, respectively. The results showed that the Maxent model had a high prediction accuracy, and the simulation results were also reliable; the total suitable habitats of S. italica is 5.54×107 km2, which mainly included the United States (North America), Brazil (South America), Australia (Oceania), China, India (Asia), and the Russian Federation (Europe). The most suitable habitat of S. italica was 0.52×107 km2, accounting for 9.44% of the total areas, mainly in the United States, India, the Russian Federation, and China. Soil and precipitation (driest monthly precipitation, hottest seasonal precipitation) are the most critical factors limiting the potential distribution of S. italica. Compared with the modern potential distribution, we predict that the four future climate change scenarios will result in varying reductions in the possible geographic ranges of S. italica. Overall, climate change may significantly affect the global distribution of S. italica, altering its worldwide production and trade patterns.
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