ArticleTheoretical biology & medical modelling2021
The impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19: a geospatial, agent-based epidemiology model.
Article in Theoretical biology & medical modelling, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global and Regional Prevalence of Domestic Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Determinants: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.JMIR research protocols · 2024Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Third wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Africa: Challenges and recommendations.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Natural disasters and infectious diseases result in widespread disruption to human health and livelihood. At the scale of a global pandemic, the co-occurrence of natural disasters is inevitable. However, the impact of natural disasters on the spread of COVID-19 has not been extensively evaluated through epidemiological modelling. Methods: We create an agent-based epidemiology model based on COVID-19 clinical, epidemiological, and geographic data. We first model 35 scenarios with varying natural disaster timing and duration for a COVID-19 outbreak in a theoretical region. We then evaluate the potential effect of an eruption of Vesuvius volcano on the spread of COVID-19 in Campania, Italy. Results: In a majority of cases, the occurrence of a natural disaster increases the number of disease related fatalities. For a natural disaster fifty days after infection onset, the median increase in fatalities is 2, 59, and 180% for a 2, 14, and 31-day long natural disaster respectively, when compared to the no natural disaster scenario. For the Campania case, the median increase in fatalities is 1.1 and 2.4 additional fatalities per 100,000 for eruptions on day 1 and 100 respectively, and 60.0 additional fatalities per 100,000 for an eruption close to the peak in infections (day 50). Conclusion: Our results show that the occurrence of a natural disaster in most cases leads to an increase in infection related fatalities, with wide variance in possible outcomes depending on the timing of the natural disaster relative to the peak in infections and the duration of the natural disaster. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12976-021-00151-0.
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