ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024
Predicting the risks of kidney failure and death in adults with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease: multinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07494526 (Research on the Prevention, Control, and Intelligent Management Decision-Making for Comorbidities of Chronic Kidney Disease and Metabolic Disorders in the Elderly), which is not on this map. Cited by 34 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Research on the Prevention, Control, and Intelligent Management Decision-Making for Comorbidities of Chronic Kidney Disease and Metabolic Disorders in the Elderly
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 45 citations in OpenAlex.
- [Recommendations for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) by the Austrian Society of Nephrology].Wiener klinische Wochenschrift · 2025Guideline
- Systematic review of the application of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Oxford classification in estimating prognosis in IgA Nephropathy.Systematic reviews · 2025Pooled it
- Mortality Risk Prediction Models for People With Kidney Failure: A Systematic Review.JAMA network open · 2025Pooled it
- Predictors of in-hospital mortality among adults with chronic kidney disease at a national tertiary hospital in Sierra Leone.Renal failure · 2026Article
- Current attitudes of primary care providers toward albuminuria testing in patients with diabetes in the United States.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- Risk factors and prediction model of renal dysfunction in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a retrospective cohort study.BMC gastroenterology · 2026Article
- The kidney failure risk equation in people with CKD and multimorbidity: the effect of competing mortality risks.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2026Observational
- Multimodal Machine Learning Integrating Clinical and Proteomic Data for Early Prediction of Hypertensive Complications: A UKB Longitudinal Study.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2026Article
- Real-World Association of SGLT2 Inhibitors with Mortality in Very Elderly Patients with HFrEF and CKD.Biomedicines · 2026Article
- Prediction of estimated glomerular filtration rate slope and kidney prognosis of patients with chronic kidney disease.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Five-Year Outcomes of Chronic Kidney Disease in a Longitudinal Population-Based Cohort in Western Australia.Nephrology (Carlton, Vic.) · 2026Article
- Implementing a model of integrated CKD management between primary and secondary care.Clinical kidney journal · 2026Review
- Using the Difference Between Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate by Cystatin C and Creatinine to Improve Mortality Risk Prediction in Elderly Patients With CKD in the HUNT Study.Kidney medicine · 2026Article
- Clustering-derived clinical subtypes and outcomes of chronic kidney disease in patients with diabetes: a multicenter cohort study.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- CKD-M2 study: 2-year mortality prediction tool for advanced kidney disease.BMC nephrology · 2025Article
- Cystic fibrosis-related kidney disease-emerging morbidity and disease modifier.Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany) · 2025Review
- CCN2/CTGF-Driven Myocardial Fibrosis and NT-proBNP Synergy as Predictors of Mortality in Maintenance Hemodialysis.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
- Identification and validation of an explainable early-stage chronic kidney disease prediction model: a multicenter retrospective study.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- Frailty in Adults with CKD and Validation of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation in Frailty Subgroups.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2025Article
- Risk-directed management of chronic kidney disease.Nature reviews. Nephrology · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo train and test a super learner strategy for risk prediction of kidney failure and mortality in people with incident moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (stage G3b to G4).
designMultinational, longitudinal, population based, cohort study. SETTINGS: Linked population health data from Canada (training and temporal testing), and Denmark and Scotland (geographical testing).
participantsPeople with newly recorded chronic kidney disease at stage G3b-G4, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 15-44 mL/min/1.73 m MODELLING: The super learner algorithm selected the best performing regression models or machine learning algorithms (learners) based on their ability to predict kidney failure and mortality with minimised cross-validated prediction error (Brier score, the lower the better). Prespecified learners included age, sex, eGFR, albuminuria, with or without diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. The index of prediction accuracy, a measure of calibration and discrimination calculated from the Brier score (the higher the better) was used to compare KDpredict with the benchmark, kidney failure risk equation, which does not account for the competing risk of death, and to evaluate the performance of KDpredict mortality models.
results67 942 Canadians, 17 528 Danish, and 7740 Scottish residents with chronic kidney disease at stage G3b to G4 were included (median age 77-80 years; median eGFR 39 mL/min/1.73 m
conclusionsKDpredict could be incorporated into electronic medical records or accessed online to accurately predict the risks of kidney failure and death in people with moderate to severe CKD. The KDpredict learning strategy is designed to be adapted to local needs and regularly revised over time to account for changes in the underlying health system and care processes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.