ArticleIFAC-PapersOnLine2021
Analysis of epidemic spread dynamics using a PDE model and COVID-19 data from Hamilton County OH USA.
Article in IFAC-PapersOnLine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Emergence of Turing Instability and Pattern Formation in a Nonlinear Stochastic Spatiotemporal Epidemic Model with Reinfections.Acta biotheoretica · 2026Article
- Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2025Article
- A novel approach to forecasting reproduction numbers of spatiotemporal stochastic epidemic spread using a PDE-based model and real-time infection data.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A rigorous theoretical and numerical analysis of a nonlinear reaction-diffusion epidemic model pertaining dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
We study the spatiotemporal dynamics of an epidemic spread using a compartmentalized PDE model. The model is validated using COVID-19 data from Hamilton County, Ohio, USA. The model parameters are estimated using a month of recorded data and then used to forecast the infection spread over the next ten days. The model is able to accurately estimate the key dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 spread in the county. Additionally, a stability analysis indicates that the model is robust to disturbances and perturbations which, for instance, could be used to represent the effects of super spreader events. We also use the modeling framework to analyse and discuss the impact of Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for mitigation of infection. Our results suggest that such models can yield useful short and medium term predictive characterization of an epidemic spread in a restricted geographical region and also help formulate effective NPIs for mitigation. The results also signify the importance of further research into the accurate analytical representation of specific NPIs and hence their dampening effects on an infection spread.
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