ArticleIFAC-PapersOnLine2021
Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for the COVID-19 Pandemic in Minnesota.
Article in IFAC-PapersOnLine, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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3 authors.
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Abstract
This paper focuses on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and estimation of associated real-time variables characterizing disease spread. A nonlinear dynamic model is developed which enhances the traditional SEIR epidemic model to include additional variables of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths. A 6-month data set containing Minnesota data on infections, hospital-ICU admissions and deaths is used to find least-squares solutions to the parameters of the model. The model is found to fit the measured data accurately. Subsequently, a cascaded observer is developed to find real-time values of the infected population, the infection rate, and the basic reproduction number. The observer is found to yield good real-time estimates that match the least-squares parameters obtained from the complete data set. The importance of the work is that it enables real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number which is a key variable for controlling disease spread.
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