ArticleScientific reports2024
A reassessment of trends and rural-urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000-2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Dynamic monitoring of public opinion on fertility intentions: based on the intersection of empirical and social media perspectives.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Social determinants of low fertility in Asia: a comparative review of trends in East, Southeast and South Asia.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Review
- The temporal shift of temperature-related injury incidence risk and its driving factors in China: a nationwide case-crossover study from 2006 to 2021.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Association of Sleep, Inflammation and Female Infertility: A Cross-Sectional Survey and Genetic Approach.Brain and behavior · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China's TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural-urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural-urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010-2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels.
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