ArticlePloS one2024
Probabilistic causal reasoning under time pressure.
Article in PloS one, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prescription Errors in a Mental Healthcare Facility: A Content Analysis of Brief Interviews.Acta medica Philippina · 2026Article
- Models of Variability in Probabilistic Causal Judgments.Computational brain & behavior · 2025Article
- The Bayesian Mutation Sampler Explains Distributions of Causal Judgments.Open mind : discoveries in cognitive science · 2023Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
While causal reasoning is a core facet of our cognitive abilities, its time-course has not received proper attention. As the duration of reasoning might prove crucial in understanding the underlying cognitive processes, we asked participants in two experiments to make probabilistic causal inferences while manipulating time pressure. We found that participants are less accurate under time pressure, a speed-accuracy-tradeoff, and that they respond more conservatively. Surprisingly, two other persistent reasoning errors-Markov violations and failures to explain away-appeared insensitive to time pressure. These observations seem related to confidence: Conservative inferences were associated with low confidence, whereas Markov violations and failures to explain were not. These findings challenge existing theories that predict an association between time pressure and all causal reasoning errors including conservatism. Our findings suggest that these errors should not be attributed to a single cognitive mechanism and emphasize that causal judgements are the result of multiple processes.
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