Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38600872›Full record

ArticleClinical and molecular hepatology2024

Conventional and machine learning-based risk scores for patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

Chun-Ting Ho, Elise Chia-Hui Tan, Pei-Chang Lee, Chi-Jen Chu, Yi-Hsiang Huang, Teh-Ia Huo, Yu-Hui Su, Ming-Chih Hou, Jaw-Ching Wu, Chien-Wei Su

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical and molecular hepatology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  4. Non-invasive model for predicting future lung metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma based on imaging heterogeneity analysis.Cancer imaging : the official publication of the International Cancer Imaging Society · 2026
    Article
  5. Development and validation of a personalized web-based calculator of aggressive recurrence after surgery for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma by machine learning.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Chun-Ting HoDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Elise Chia-Hui TanDepartment of Health Service Administration, College of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan.
Pei-Chang LeeDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Chi-Jen ChuDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Yi-Hsiang HuangSchool of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Teh-Ia HuoDivision of Basic Research, Department of Medical Research, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Yu-Hui SuDepartment of Accounting, Soochow University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Ming-Chih HouDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
Jaw-Ching WuInstitute of Clinical Medicine, School of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Chien-Wei SuDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.

Funding

National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan MOST 111-2314-B-075-056National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan NSTC 112-2314-B-075-043-MY2Taipei Veterans General Hospital MOHW112-TDU-B-221-124007Taipei Veterans General Hospital V112C-039Y.L. Lin Hung Tai Education Foundation
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND/

aimsThe performance of machine learning (ML) in predicting the outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain. We aimed to develop risk scores using conventional methods and ML to categorize early-stage HCC patients into distinct prognostic groups.

methodsThe study retrospectively enrolled 1,411 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0 to A HCC from 2012 to 2021. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=988) and validation cohort (n=423). Two risk scores (CATS-IF and CATS-INF) were developed to predict overall survival (OS) in the training cohort using the conventional methods (Cox proportional hazards model) and ML-based methods (LASSO Cox regression), respectively. They were then validated and compared in the validation cohort.

resultsIn the training cohort, factors for the CATS-IF score were selected by the conventional method, including age, curative treatment, single large HCC, serum creatinine and alpha-fetoprotein levels, fibrosis-4 score, lymphocyte-tomonocyte ratio, and albumin-bilirubin grade. The CATS-INF score, determined by ML-based methods, included the above factors and two additional ones (aspartate aminotransferase and prognostic nutritional index). In the validation cohort, both CATS-IF score and CATS-INF score outperformed other modern prognostic scores in predicting OS, with the CATSINF score having the lowest Akaike information criterion value. A calibration plot exhibited good correlation between predicted and observed outcomes for both scores.

conclusionBoth the conventional Cox-based CATS-IF score and ML-based CATS-INF score effectively stratified patients with early-stage HCC into distinct prognostic groups, with the CATS-INF score showing slightly superior performance.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, HepatocellularLiver NeoplasmsMachine LearningAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm StagingPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsFibrosisHepatocellular carcinomaInflammationMachine learningPrognosis

Identifiers

PMID38600872
PMCPMC11261226

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.