ArticleScientific reports2024
Forecasting the ecological footprint of G20 countries in the next 30 years.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Burden and temporal trends of non-communicable diseases from 1990 to 2021 and prediction to 2035 in the group of twenty countries: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- How to achieve low-carbon development in China: spatial spillover of education on carbon intensity.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The Ecological Footprint evaluates the difference between the availability of renewable resources and the extent of human consumption of these resources. Over the past few decades, historical records have shown an accelerated decline in the availability of resources. Based on national footprint and biocapacity accounts, this analysis aims to advance the forecasting of the G20 countries' ecological footprints over a 30-year time frame. We employed a time series forecasting approach implemented in Python, which included-modular regression (Prophet) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA & Auto-ARIMA) methods. We evaluated and combined the performance of these three methods. The results indicated that among the largest economies of the G20, only four countries are projected to have a positive ecological footprint balance by 2050. These countries share the common denominator of large land areas and a moderate population growth projection. However, the overall trend of the indicator suggests that it will continue to decline.
Identifiers
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.