Evidence map›Paper›PMID 38592955›Full record

Observational studyEuropean heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes2025

Contemporary trends in incident ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, and mortality in individuals with atrial fibrillation.

Jean Jacques Noubiap, Janet J Tang, Thomas A Dewland, Gregory M Marcus

Open access · bronzeAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
2.4field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Jean Jacques NoubiapFrom the Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California-San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7722-9757
Janet J TangFrom the Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California-San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Thomas A DewlandFrom the Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California-San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.
Gregory M MarcusFrom the Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, University of California-San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5197-7696
University of California, San Francisco · US

Funding

Applying Digital Health to the AF Ablation NCDR, Enabling Longitudinal Follow-upR01HL158825 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI MARCUS, GREGORY M · 2021 to 2025
$3.4M
NHLBI NIH HHS HL158825-01NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL158825NIHPatient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe prognosis for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients is based on data that is decades old. Given evolving standards of clinical practice, we sought to evaluate temporal trends in clinically important outcomes among patients with AF. METHODS AND

resultsCalifornia's Department of Health Care Access and Information databases were used to identify adults aged ≥18 years with AF receiving hospital-based care in California. We compared three time-periods: 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2019. International Classification of Diseases codes were used to identify chronic diseases and acute events. The outcomes were incident ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, and overall mortality. We included 2 009 832 patients with AF (52.7% males, 70.7% Whites, and mean age of 75.0 years), divided in three cohorts: 2005-2009 (n = 738 954), 2010-2014 (n = 609 447), and 2015-2019 (n = 661 431). Each outcome became substantially less common with time: compared with 2005-2009, AF patients diagnosed in 2015-2019 experienced a 34% (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.69), 22% (HR 0.78, 0.75-0.82), and 24% (HR 0.76, 0.75-0.77) reduction in risk of incident ischaemic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, and mortality, respectively. Between 2005-2009 and 2015-2019, patients aged ≥65 years experienced more reductions in each outcome compared with younger patients (P < 0.001 for all), and declines in each outcome were significantly lower for Hispanics and Blacks compared with white patients.

conclusionThe risks of stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, and death have significantly declined among AF patients, although differences in the magnitude of improvement of these outcomes by demographic groups were observed. Commonly described estimates of the prognosis for AF patients should be updated to reflect contemporary care.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationIntracranial HemorrhagesIschemic StrokeAgedAged, 80 and overCaliforniaFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsSurvival RateAtrial fibrillationHaemorrhageMortalityStroke

Identifiers

PMID38592955
PMCPMC12045093
OpenAlexW4394695458

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.