Has the first year of the COVID pandemic impacted the trends in obesity-related CVD mortality between 1999 and 2019 in the United States?

Background: During the covid-19 pandemic there was a marked rise in the number of cardiovascular deaths. Obesity is a well-known modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and has been identified as a factor which leads to poorer covid-19 related outcomes. In this study we aimed to analyse the impact of covid-19 on obesity-related cardiovascular deaths compared to trends seen 20 years prior. We also analysed the influence different demographics had on mortality. Methods: Multiple Cause of Mortality database was accessed through CDC WONDER to obtain the obesity-related and general cardiovascular crude mortality and age adjusted mortality rates (AMMR) between 1999 and 2020 in the US. The obesity-related sample was stratified by demographics and cardiovascular mortality was subdivided into ischemic heart disease, heart failure, hypertension and cerebrovascular disease. Joinpoint Regression Program (Version 4.9.1.0) was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in AAMR, and hence projected AAMR. Excess mortality was calculated by comparing actual AAMR in 2020 to projected values. Results and discussion: There were an estimated 3058 excess deaths during the early stages of the pandemic impacting all cohorts. The greatest excess mortalities were seen in men, rural populations and in Asian/Pacific Islander and Native Americans. Interestingly the greatest overall mortality was seen in the Black American population. Our study highlights important, both pre and during the pandemic, in obesity related cardiovascular disease mortality which has important implications for ongoing public health measures.