Establishment and validation of a CT-based prediction model for the good dissolution of mild chronic subdural hematoma with atorvastatin treatment.

purposeTo develop and validate a prediction model based on imaging data for the prognosis of mild chronic subdural hematoma undergoing atorvastatin treatment.

methodsWe developed the prediction model utilizing data from patients diagnosed with CSDH between February 2019 and November 2021. Demographic characteristics, medical history, and hematoma characteristics in non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) were extracted upon admission to the hospital. To reduce data dimensionality, a backward stepwise regression model was implemented to build a prognostic prediction model. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the prognostic prediction model by a tenfold cross-validation procedure.

resultsMaximum thickness, volume, mean density, morphology, and kurtosis of the hematoma were identified as the most significant predictors of good hematoma dissolution in mild CSDH patients undergoing atorvastatin treatment. The prediction model exhibited good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.90) and good calibration (p = 0.613). The validation analysis showed the AUC of the final prognostic prediction model is 0.80 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) and it has good prediction performance.

conclusionThe imaging data-based prediction model has demonstrated great prediction accuracy for good hematoma dissolution in mild CSDH patients undergoing atorvastatin treatment. The study results emphasize the importance of imaging data evaluation in the management of CSDH patients.