ArticleGastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association2024
Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults.
Article in Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 0 citations in OpenAlex.
- Comparative validation and local adaptation of gastric cancer risk assessment models in a large multicenter endoscopic screening cohort in China.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Five-Year Unified Risk Prediction Model for Gastric and Esophageal Cancer Based on Nationwide Health Check-Up Data in Japan: J-GESS Score.Journal of gastroenterology and hepatology · 2026Article
- Plasma proteomic signatures improve risk stratification and personalized screening for gastric cancer.Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association · 2026Article
- The clinical value of analyzing predictive models for gastric function and gastric organic lesions.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundAlthough endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.
methodsWe developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell's C-statistics and Nam-D'Agostino χ
resultsWe included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770-0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743-0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ
conclusionOur prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.
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