ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024
The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- First Mediterranean record and north-eastern range extension of the African seahorse Hippocampus algiricus.Journal of fish biology · 2026Article
- Differences in extinction selectivity and their relationship to functional traits in late Cenozoic mollusks.PeerJ · 2026Article
- Deep connections: exploring the genetic connectivity of mesophotic and shallow-water populations of the sponge Axinella polypoides.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Widespread ecological novelty across the terrestrial biosphere.Nature ecology & evolution · 2025Article
- Seagrass-rafted large benthic foraminifera transported into the deep Red Sea.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Late Miocene transformation of Mediterranean Sea biodiversity.Science advances · 2024Article
- The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.