Quantifying in vitro B. anthracis growth and PA production and decay: a mathematical modelling approach.

Protective antigen (PA) is a protein produced by Bacillus anthracis. It forms part of the anthrax toxin and is a key immunogen in US and UK anthrax vaccines. In this study, we have conducted experiments to quantify PA in the supernatants of cultures of B. anthracis Sterne strain, which is the strain used in the manufacture of the UK anthrax vaccine. Then, for the first time, we quantify PA production and degradation via mathematical modelling and Bayesian statistical techniques, making use of this new experimental data as well as two other independent published data sets. We propose a single mathematical model, in terms of delay differential equations (DDEs), which can explain the in vitro dynamics of all three data sets. Since we did not heat activate the B. anthracis spores prior to inoculation, germination occurred much slower in our experiments, allowing us to calibrate two additional parameters with respect to the other data sets. Our model is able to distinguish between natural PA decay and that triggered by bacteria via proteases. There is promising consistency between the different independent data sets for most of the parameter estimates. The quantitative characterisation of B. anthracis PA production and degradation obtained here will contribute towards the ambition to include a realistic description of toxin dynamics, the host immune response, and anti-toxin treatments in future mechanistic models of anthrax infection.