ArticleScientific reports2024
Transmission dynamics of Zika virus with multiple infection routes and a case study in Brazil.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.
- Activation of ATF3 via the integrated stress response pathway regulates innate immune response to restrict Zika virus.Journal of virology · 2024Article
- Activation of ATF3 via the Integrated Stress Response Pathway Regulates Innate Immune Response to Restrict Zika Virus.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a serious global public health crisis. A major control challenge is its multiple transmission modes. This paper aims to simulate the transmission patterns of ZIKV using a dynamic process-based epidemiological model written in ordinary differential equations, which incorporates the human-to-mosquito infection by bites and sewage, mosquito-to-human infection by bites, and human-to-human infection by sex. Mathematical analyses are carried out to calculate the basic reproduction number and backward bifurcation, and prove the existence and stability of the equilibria. The model is validated with infection data by applying it to the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. The results indicate that the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.13, in which the contributions by mosquito bite, sex and sewage account for 85.7%, 3.5% and 10.8%, respectively. This number and the morbidity rate are most sensitive to parameters related to mosquito ecology, rather than asymptomatic or human-to-human transmission. Multiple transmission routes and suitable temperature exacerbate ZIKV infection in Brazil, and the vast majority of human infection cases were prevented by the intervention implemented. These findings may provide new insights to improve the risk assessment of ZIKV infection.
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